luckadjusted

Divisional round 2025 · January 17, 2026

49ers at Seahawks, Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the 49ers 41–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.5 points to the 49ers.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 23 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 6
Seattle Seahawks 41

January 17, 2026 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6.5

Luck index +15 Seahawks about even · −15 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 2, Seahawks win 8.

  1. 1 SF 24 SEA 10
  2. 2 SF 30 SEA 27
  3. 3 SF 17 SEA 19
  4. 4 SF 20 SEA 23
  5. 5 SF 13 SEA 20
  6. 6 SF 24 SEA 34
  7. 7 SF 13 SEA 26
  8. 8 SF 14 SEA 30
  9. 9 SF 10 SEA 31
  10. 10 SF 3 SEA 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 15% of them, Seahawks 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+1.1%
49ers by 9–164.0%
49ers by 1–89.6%
Level after regulation1.0%
Seahawks by 1–824.7%
Seahawks by 9–1623.6%
Seahawks by 17+36.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 35. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 22.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 56 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Myers, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Tripping on the 49ers (Eddy Piñeiro), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 675 snaps before, position avg 1 per 264Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +23% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:08 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% SEA SF: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 5:55 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% SF SEA: Field goal
4 Q1 2:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Marques Sigle), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 655 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +4% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:42 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedR. Pearsall dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 68 catchable balls before this +4% SEA SF: Field goal
6 Q2 1:51 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:13 The 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% SF SF: End of half
8 Q3 14:22 The 49ers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% SF SF: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ji'Ayir Brown (SF S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 0% · Seahawks 100%

Final margin
Seahawks by 35
Luck in points
12.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 22.4
Replay with same day's form
49ers 15% · Seahawks 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2025 games · 49ers · Seahawks

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