luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2025: game by game

The Seahawks went 14–3 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.4 wins. Luck added 1.6: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.

Playoffs: 3–0, replay wins 1.4.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs 49ers L 13–17 32% −32
Week 2 @ Steelers W 31–17 87% +13
Week 3 vs Saints W 44–13 90% +10
Week 4 @ Cardinals W 23–20 83% +17
Week 5 vs Buccaneers L 35–38 66% −66
Week 6 @ Jaguars W 20–12 94% +6
Week 7 vs Texans W 27–19 88% +12
Week 9 @ Commanders W 38–14 82% +18
Week 10 vs Cardinals W 44–22 84% +16
Week 11 @ Rams L 19–21 52% −52
Week 12 @ Titans W 30–24 98% +2
Week 13 vs Vikings W 26–0 97% +3
Week 14 @ Falcons W 37–9 79% +21
Week 15 vs Colts W 18–16 75% +25
Week 16 vs Rams W 38–37 29% +71
Week 17 @ Panthers W 27–10 64% +36
Week 18 @ 49ers W 13–3 45% +55
Divisional round vs 49ers W 41–6 85% +15
NFC Championship vs Rams W 31–27 22% +78
Super Bowl @ Patriots W 29–13 30% +70

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+15.4+0.91
Injuries+14.0+0.82
Kicks+11.2+0.66
Drops+10.3+0.60
3rd & 4th downs+10.2+0.60
Fumble bounces+3.1+0.19
Rest+1.6+0.09