luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2025: game by game

The Seahawks went 14–3 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.

Playoffs: 3–0, replay wins 1.6.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs 49ers L 13–17 47% −47
Week 2 @ Steelers W 31–17 89% +11
Week 3 vs Saints W 44–13 96% +4
Week 4 @ Cardinals W 23–20 92% +8
Week 5 vs Buccaneers L 35–38 47% −47
Week 6 @ Jaguars W 20–12 94% +6
Week 7 vs Texans W 27–19 91% +9
Week 9 @ Commanders W 38–14 82% +18
Week 10 vs Cardinals W 44–22 75% +25
Week 11 @ Rams L 19–21 34% −34
Week 12 @ Titans W 30–24 98% +2
Week 13 vs Vikings W 26–0 99% +1
Week 14 @ Falcons W 37–9 80% +20
Week 15 vs Colts W 18–16 86% +14
Week 16 vs Rams W 38–37 17% +83
Week 17 @ Panthers W 27–10 64% +36
Week 18 @ 49ers W 13–3 55% +45
Divisional round vs 49ers W 41–6 92% +8
NFC Championship vs Rams W 31–27 35% +65
Super Bowl vs Patriots W 29–13 32% +68

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Drops+0.69+12.6
Judgment calls+0.39+5.9
3rd & 4th downs+0.30+9.2
Kicks+0.18+10.7
Injuries+0.18+10.1
Rest+0.04+1.6
Fumble bounces−0.19+3.3