luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Seahawks at Titans, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Titans 30–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.8 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:11 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 6, worth 20 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 30
Tennessee Titans 24

November 23, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −12.5

Luck index +2 Seahawks about even · −2 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 SEA 32 TEN 0
  2. 2 SEA 26 TEN 0
  3. 3 SEA 21 TEN 0
  4. 4 SEA 21 TEN 3
  5. 5 SEA 30 TEN 14
  6. 6 SEA 13 TEN 0
  7. 7 SEA 18 TEN 7
  8. 8 SEA 28 TEN 20
  9. 9 SEA 19 TEN 14
  10. 10 SEA 6 TEN 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 98% of them, Titans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+68.1%
Seahawks by 9–1621.7%
Seahawks by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation0.4%
Titans by 1–81.8%
Titans by 9–160.3%
Titans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 3.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:09 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +13% TEN TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 6:54 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% SEA TEN: Field goal
3 Q1 4:31 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q1 1:08 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q2 11:11 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +20% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:34 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% SEA TEN: Punt
7 Q2 3:54 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 1:54 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% SEA TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elic Ayomanor (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Hance (TEN OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ernest Jones (SEA LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jalen Sundell (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 81% · Titans 19%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
2.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 98% · Titans 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Seahawks · Titans

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