luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Giants at Lions, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Giants 34–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Lions were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 4:26 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 73 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 27
Detroit Lions 34

November 23, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −14

Luck index +25 Lions lucky · −25 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Lions win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 66 DET 47
  2. 2 NYG 33 DET 24
  3. 3 NYG 31 DET 28
  4. 4 NYG 34 DET 36
  5. 5 NYG 28 DET 33
  6. 6 NYG 24 DET 33
  7. 7 NYG 26 DET 37
  8. 8 NYG 17 DET 33
  9. 9 NYG 39 DET 62
  10. 10 NYG 30 DET 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 25% of them, Lions 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.1%
Giants by 9–166.9%
Giants by 1–812.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Lions by 1–822.8%
Lions by 9–1620.9%
Lions by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 14.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Bates, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Bates, 59 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:05 The Giants converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q3 2:25 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +28% NYG DET: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:10 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:36 The Giants converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +17% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 0:33 J. Bates made 59-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 15 of 22 from 45+ before +18% DET DET: Touchdown
7 QOT 8:43 The Giants converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +32% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
8 QOT 4:26 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +73% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Giovanni Manu (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaxson Dart (NYG QB), out, replaced by j.winston · 1.1 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 2% · Lions 98%

Final margin
Lions by 7
Luck in points
7.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 25% · Lions 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Giants · Lions

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