Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025
Giants at Lions, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Giants 34–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.
Before kickoff the Lions were 85% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:33 left): J. Bates made a 59-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Lions. The biggest single swing (OT, 4:26 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 5.
Final (OT)
 New York Giants | 27 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Lions lucky · −25 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 3, Lions win 7.
- 1 NYG 46 DET 28
- 2 NYG 41 DET 31
- 3 NYG 25 DET 22
- 4 NYG 42 DET 45
- 5 NYG 36 DET 42
- 6 NYG 26 DET 35
- 7 NYG 17 DET 30
- 8 NYG 26 DET 43
- 9 NYG 13 DET 34
- 10 NYG 6 DET 37
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 25% of them, Lions 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 3.6% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 13.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Lions by 17+ | 30.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- Y. Koo, 44 yds made · 85% expected
- J. Bates, 37 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Bates, 59 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Giants 7 for 59 yards, Lions 9 for 81 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:09 | Defensive Offside on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:20 | Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.2 pts |
| Q1 1:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Brian Branch), 9 yards | +3% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Dane Belton), 14 yards | +3% DET +1.4 pts |
| Q2 11:53 | Intentional Grounding on the Lions (Jared Goff), 10 yards | +3% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:21 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Zaire Barnes), 10 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:01 | Defensive Offside on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.1 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 24 yards | +4% NYG +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:03 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +16% NYG +3.7 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (Grant Stuard), 10 yards | +1% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q4 6:49 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brian Branch), 8 yards | +6% NYG +1.1 pts |
| Q4 6:08 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% DET +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:50 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards | +10% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:12 | Defensive Delay of Game on the Giants (Jevon Holland), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:18 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 10 yards | +2% NYG +0.3 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 12:03 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% NYG | NYG: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 2:25 | The Lions were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +13% NYG | DET: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 8:10 | The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +11% NYG | NYG: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 5:36 | The Giants converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +12% NYG | NYG: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 0:33 | The game turned hereJ. Bates made a 59-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 15 of 22 from 45+ before | +16% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 6 | OT 8:43 | The Giants converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +32% NYG | NYG: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | OT 6:31 | The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +12% NYG | NYG: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | OT 4:26 | The Giants were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +43% DET | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
- Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Giovanni Manu (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Jaxson Dart (NYG QB), out, replaced by j.winston · 1.1 pts
- Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out · 0.4 pts
- Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Darius Muasau (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 1% · Lions 99%
- Final margin
- Lions by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 12.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 25% · Lions 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Giants · 
Lions
More from Week 12 2025
- Bills at Texans HOU 23–19 · replay 54% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 23–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 26–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Jets at Ravens BAL 23–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Steelers at Bears CHI 31–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Seahawks at Titans SEA 30–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Raiders CLE 24–10 · replay 38% for the winner
- Jaguars at Cardinals JAX 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints ATL 24–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 24–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 20–9 · replay 79% for the winner