luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Colts at Chiefs, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Colts 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 5:33 left): the Chiefs converted 3rd & 7, worth 23 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 20
Kansas City Chiefs 23

November 23, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +14 Chiefs about even · −14 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 IND 28 KC 21
  2. 2 IND 21 KC 23
  3. 3 IND 23 KC 27
  4. 4 IND 26 KC 33
  5. 5 IND 27 KC 37
  6. 6 IND 13 KC 26
  7. 7 IND 16 KC 31
  8. 8 IND 30 KC 48
  9. 9 IND 7 KC 30
  10. 10 IND 13 KC 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 14% of them, Chiefs 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+1.1%
Colts by 9–163.0%
Colts by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.5%
Chiefs by 1–821.1%
Chiefs by 9–1624.4%
Chiefs by 17+40.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • H. Butker, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • H. Butker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • M. Badgley, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • H. Butker, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 11 for 83 yards, Chiefs 7 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:20 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q1 11:06 Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% KC +2.5 pts
Q1 9:51 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.5 pts
Q1 9:41 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Cooper McDonald), 4 yards +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q1 0:14 Face Mask on the Chiefs, 15 yards +2% IND +1.4 pts
Q2 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Laiatu Latu), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q2 4:38 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 15 yards +2% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 1:50 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.3 pts
Q2 0:48 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 0:43 Face Mask on the Colts (Charvarius Ward), 12 yards +3% KC +1.4 pts
Q2 0:32 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Laiatu Latu), 6 yards +3% KC +1.0 pts
Q3 9:12 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Kevin Knowles), 10 yards +1% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 7:58 Illegal Contact on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 5 yards +2% KC +0.4 pts
Q4 12:22 Illegal Blindside Block on the Chiefs, 15 yards +5% IND +1.4 pts
Q4 9:47 Face Mask on the Colts (Sauce Gardner), 10 yards +3% KC +1.2 pts
Q4 4:52 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Kristian Fulton), 5 yards +4% IND +0.4 pts
Q4 4:52 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 4:43 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 3 yards, wiping out the play +9% IND +1.0 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:01 The Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +11% IND KC: Field goal
2 Q4 14:56 The Chiefs fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% IND KC: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:45 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +7% IND IND: Punt
4 Q4 4:43 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 31 flags in 7035 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +9% IND IND: Punt
5 Q4 3:18 The Chiefs converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +16% KC KC: Field goal
6 Q4 0:20 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +14% IND KC: Field goal
7 OT 8:41 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +20% KC IND: Punt
8 OT 5:33 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +23% KC KC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isiah Pacheco (KC RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 39% · Chiefs 61%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
0.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 14% · Chiefs 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Colts · Chiefs

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