luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Browns at Raiders, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Raiders 24–10, but the replays lean toward the Raiders: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:02 left): T. Tucker dropped a catchable pass, worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 24
Las Vegas Raiders 10

November 23, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +62 Browns very lucky · −62 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 CLE 29 LV 10
  2. 2 CLE 35 LV 23
  3. 3 CLE 20 LV 13
  4. 4 CLE 12 LV 10
  5. 5 CLE 28 LV 30
  6. 6 CLE 9 LV 13
  7. 7 CLE 19 LV 28
  8. 8 CLE 14 LV 25
  9. 9 CLE 14 LV 30
  10. 10 CLE 7 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 38% of them, Raiders 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+5.5%
Browns by 9–1610.9%
Browns by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.8%
Raiders by 1–824.2%
Raiders by 9–1619.9%
Raiders by 17+17.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 14, without the luck Browns by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 48 yds missed · 78% expected
  • D. Carlson, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 53 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 8 for 77 yards, Raiders 13 for 109 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:28 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q1 9:27 Tripping on the Raiders (AJ Cole III), 14 yards +4% CLE +1.2 pts
Q1 5:21 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 9:12 Illegal Formation on the Raiders (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q2 4:16 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Raiders (Tommy Eichenberg), 5 yards 0% CLE +0.3 pts
Q2 0:36 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 9:25 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q3 8:18 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Myles Harden), 10 yards +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q3 8:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Cedric Tillman), 6 yards, wiping out the play +3% LV +1.6 pts
Q3 4:13 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +1.0 pts
Q3 1:08 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Mason Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.8 pts
Q3 0:53 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Adam Butler), 15 yards +1% CLE +1.0 pts
Q4 14:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Jamal Adams), 15 yards +2% CLE +1.6 pts
Q4 13:10 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 12:08 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Tommy Eichenberg), 10 yards +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 10:45 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 7:49 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Cameron Thomas), 15 yards 0% LV +1.1 pts
Q4 6:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 21 yards 0% LV +1.4 pts
Q4 6:38 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Tyler Lockett), 10 yards 0% CLE +1.2 pts
Q4 2:00 Encroachment on the Raiders (Elandon Roberts), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.2 pts
Q4 1:05 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.5 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:43 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:33 D. Carlson missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 55 of 75 from 45+ before +4% CLE LV: Field goal
3 Q2 0:36 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% CLE CLE: End of half
4 Q3 6:18 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +5% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q3 2:45 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% LV LV: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 1:02 T. Tucker dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 121 catchable balls before this +9% CLE LV: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 0:58 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% CLE LV: Punt
8 Q4 12:13 A. Szmyt made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 93% · Raiders 7%

Final margin
Browns by 14
Luck in points
5.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 38% · Raiders 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Browns · Raiders

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