Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025
Falcons at Saints, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Saints 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 10 of 10.
An off day for the Saints: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Saints were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:53 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 33 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 24 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Falcons about even · −5 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 10, Saints win 0.
- 1 ATL 40 NO 7
- 2 ATL 37 NO 10
- 3 ATL 23 NO 0
- 4 ATL 22 NO 3
- 5 ATL 19 NO 3
- 6 ATL 26 NO 13
- 7 ATL 17 NO 6
- 8 ATL 9 NO 0
- 9 ATL 20 NO 14
- 10 ATL 24 NO 21
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Saints
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.11 | better by 0.03 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.12 | better by 0.32 |
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.04 | worse by 0.24 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.14 | worse by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 95% of them, Saints 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 65.5% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 3.6% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Saints by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Z. Gonzalez, 56 yds made · 67% expected
- B. Grupe, 38 yds missed · 91% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 41 yds made · 88% expected
- B. Grupe, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds made · 69% expected
- B. Grupe, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Falcons 9 for 82 yards, Saints 4 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:41 | False Start on the Falcons (Teagan Quitoriano), 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO +1.1 pts |
| Q1 6:18 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NO +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:13 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jordan Howden), 7 yards | +2% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:42 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Devaughn Vele), 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Xavier Watts), 12 yards | +4% NO +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 13 yards | +8% NO +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:20 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:22 | Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Taysom Hill), 14 yards | +6% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Taunting on the Falcons (Feleipe Franks), 15 yards | +5% NO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:04 | Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Kirk Cousins), 13 yards | +2% NO +1.2 pts |
| Q4 9:32 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Cobee Bryant), 10 yards | +1% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:09 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO +0.4 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:00 | The Saints fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ATL | NO: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:35 | B. Grupe missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +11% ATL | NO: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 6:53 | The Falcons were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsReturn touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams | +33% NO | ATL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:56 | B. Grupe missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 23 of 34 from 45+ before | +14% ATL | NO: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 8:17 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +5% ATL | NO: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 1:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 22 flags in 5534 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +8% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +8% ATL | NO: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 14:19 | The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +9% NO | NO: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Taliese Fuaga (NO T), out · 0.8 pts
- Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
- Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 61% · Saints 39%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 14
- Luck in points
- 10.6 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 95% · Saints 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Falcons · 
Saints
More from Week 12 2025
- Bills at Texans HOU 23–19 · replay 54% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 23–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 26–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Lions DET 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jets at Ravens BAL 23–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Steelers at Bears CHI 31–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Seahawks at Titans SEA 30–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Raiders CLE 24–10 · replay 38% for the winner
- Jaguars at Cardinals JAX 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 24–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Panthers at 49ers SF 20–9 · replay 79% for the winner