luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 24–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: drops alone were worth 6.5 points to the Eagles.

An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): B. Aubrey made 42-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 21
Dallas Cowboys 24

November 23, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +11 Cowboys about even · −11 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 20 DAL 13
  2. 2 PHI 34 DAL 36
  3. 3 PHI 20 DAL 24
  4. 4 PHI 16 DAL 24
  5. 5 PHI 16 DAL 27
  6. 6 PHI 20 DAL 35
  7. 7 PHI 6 DAL 24
  8. 8 PHI 13 DAL 34
  9. 9 PHI 23 DAL 48
  10. 10 PHI 9 DAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

45 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.12 better by 0.02
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.02 worse by 0.14
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.13 better by 0.03
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.18 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 11% of them, Cowboys 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.8%
Eagles by 9–162.5%
Eagles by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation1.8%
Cowboys by 1–817.8%
Cowboys by 9–1621.1%
Cowboys by 17+49.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 8.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 51 yds missed · 83% expected
  • J. Elliott, 56 yds missed · 66% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 42 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:45 Roughing the Kicker on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1042 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q4 8:08 Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% DAL DAL: Punt
3 Q4 6:08 R. Flournoy dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 29 catchable balls before this +9% PHI DAL: Punt
4 Q4 5:25 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% DAL PHI: Punt
5 Q4 3:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedC. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 24 drops on 456 catchable balls before this +15% PHI DAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:46 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% PHI DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +14% DAL PHI: Punt
8 Q4 0:03 B. Aubrey made 42-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +16% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Juanyeh Thomas (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Tolbert (DAL WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 15% · Cowboys 85%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
5.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 11% · Cowboys 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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