luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 20, 2025

Bills at Texans, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Bills 23–19, but the Bills played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 1.8 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:24 left): the Bills were stopped on 4th & 6, worth 51 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Buffalo Bills 19
Houston Texans 23

November 20, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Bills −5.5

Luck index +64 Texans very lucky · −64 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 31 HOU 6
  2. 2 BUF 27 HOU 9
  3. 3 BUF 24 HOU 10
  4. 4 BUF 22 HOU 13
  5. 5 BUF 30 HOU 24
  6. 6 BUF 19 HOU 16
  7. 7 BUF 16 HOU 19
  8. 8 BUF 7 HOU 13
  9. 9 BUF 24 HOU 34
  10. 10 BUF 17 HOU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 64% of them, Texans 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+19.1%
Bills by 9–1620.1%
Bills by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation2.7%
Texans by 1–820.0%
Texans by 9–169.6%
Texans by 17+5.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Prater, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Prater, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:19 The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +15% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:56 Return touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +21% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:09 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% HOU BUF: Punt
4 Q3 4:19 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% HOU BUF: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 10:14 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% HOU BUF: Field goal
6 Q4 7:56 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +17% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q4 0:51 The Bills converted 4th & 273rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +33% BUF BUF: Turnover
8 Q4 0:24 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +51% HOU BUF: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 4.7 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU S), out · 0.5 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 36% · Texans 64%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
1.9 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 64% · Texans 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Bills · Texans

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