luckadjusted

Week 12 2025 · November 23, 2025

Buccaneers at Rams, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Buccaneers 34–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.4 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Rams were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:54 left): Return touchdown by the Rams, worth 17 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
Los Angeles Rams 34

November 23, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7

Luck index +5 Rams about even · −5 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 TB 11 LA 6
  2. 2 TB 23 LA 26
  3. 3 TB 14 LA 20
  4. 4 TB 17 LA 26
  5. 5 TB 5 LA 16
  6. 6 TB 12 LA 26
  7. 7 TB 10 LA 27
  8. 8 TB 21 LA 40
  9. 9 TB 10 LA 34
  10. 10 TB 6 LA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 5% of them, Rams 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.2%
Buccaneers by 9–160.8%
Buccaneers by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.7%
Rams by 1–814.5%
Rams by 9–1621.8%
Rams by 17+58.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 27. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 33.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Mevis, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • H. Mevis, 52 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +3% TB TB: Punt
2 Q1 10:25 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% LA TB: Punt
3 Q1 9:08 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:54 The Rams converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:14 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +2% TB TB: Opp touchdown
6 Q1 1:54 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +17% LA TB: Punt
7 Q2 0:05 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 243rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedThe Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% LA TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 13:02 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Rams (Matthew Stafford), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 6241 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +3% TB LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Karty (LA K), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Haason Reddick (TB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (TB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 27
Luck in points
6.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 33.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 5% · Rams 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Buccaneers · Rams

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