2025 season · final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2025: game by game

The Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–6.

Every game

How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Falcons	W 23–20	65%	+35
Week 2	@ Texans	W 20–19	77%	+23
Week 3	vs Jets	W 29–27	63%	+37
Week 4	vs Eagles	L 25–31	75%	−75
Week 5	@ Seahawks	W 38–35	34%	+66
Week 6	vs 49ers	W 30–19	68%	+32
Week 7	@ Lions	L 9–24	33%	−33
Week 8	@ Saints	W 23–3	69%	+31
Week 10	vs Patriots	L 23–28	15%	−15
Week 11	@ Bills	L 32–44	34%	−34
Week 12	@ Rams	L 7–34	5%	−5
Week 13	vs Cardinals	W 20–17	7%	+93
Week 14	vs Saints	L 20–24	49%	−49
Week 15	vs Falcons	L 28–29	80%	−80
Week 16	@ Panthers	L 20–23	47%	−47
Week 17	@ Dolphins	L 17–20	52%	−52
Week 18	vs Panthers	W 16–14	79%	+21

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +35 @ ATL

Wk 2 +23 @ HOU

Wk 3 +37 vs NYJ

Wk 4 −75 vs PHI

Wk 5 +66 @ SEA

Wk 6 +32 vs SF

Wk 7 −33 @ DET

Wk 8 +31 @ NO

Wk 10 −15 vs NE

Wk 11 −34 @ BUF

Wk 12 −5 @ LA

Wk 13 +93 vs ARI

Wk 14 −49 vs NO

Wk 15 −80 vs ATL

Wk 16 −47 @ CAR

Wk 17 −52 @ MIA

Wk 18 +21 vs CAR

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+12.9	+0.76
Fumble bounces	+12.6	+0.74
Drops	+4.5	+0.26
Injuries	+4.2	+0.25
Kicks	+3.8	+0.22
Rest	+0.4	+0.02
3rd & 4th downs	−4.1	−0.24