luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 23–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): Y. Koo missed a 44-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Atlanta Falcons 20

September 7, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −1.5

Luck index +30 Buccaneers lucky · −30 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Falcons win 3.

  1. 1 TB 38 ATL 16
  2. 2 TB 27 ATL 10
  3. 3 TB 33 ATL 20
  4. 4 TB 37 ATL 27
  5. 5 TB 24 ATL 17
  6. 6 TB 26 ATL 22
  7. 7 TB 29 ATL 27
  8. 8 TB 17 ATL 20
  9. 9 TB 24 ATL 31
  10. 10 TB 0 ATL 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 70% of them, Falcons 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+19.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.4%
Buccaneers by 1–828.2%
Level after regulation4.3%
Falcons by 1–815.8%
Falcons by 9–167.7%
Falcons by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Buccaneers by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 80% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 44 yds missed · 85% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • Y. Koo, 44 yds missed · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 5 for 60 yards, Falcons 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:14 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Falcons (Younghoe Koo), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q1 12:11 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Haason Reddick), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (James Pearce), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% ATL 0.0 pts
Q2 14:36 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q2 10:10 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% ATL +2.1 pts
Q3 11:42 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Drake London), 10 yards +3% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 10:34 Illegal Shift on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% TB +1.6 pts
Q3 7:13 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +1.0 pts
Q3 4:52 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q4 9:08 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 15 yards +3% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 6:36 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Greg Gaines), 15 yards +13% ATL +1.8 pts
Q4 1:10 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Ruke Orhorhoro), 15 yards +8% TB +1.0 pts
Q4 0:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (KhaDarel Hodge), 10 yards +11% TB +0.9 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 3:17 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q4 6:36 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Greg Gaines), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3228 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 3:42 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% TB ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:01 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +15% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:32 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +9% TB ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:23 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +22% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:32 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +16% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:06 Y. Koo missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +30% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (ATL WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 83% · Falcons 17%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 70% · Falcons 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

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