luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 23–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): Y. Koo missed 44-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Atlanta Falcons 20

September 7, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −1.5

Luck index +35 Buccaneers lucky · −35 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 6, Falcons win 4.

  1. 1 TB 55 ATL 31
  2. 2 TB 26 ATL 9
  3. 3 TB 31 ATL 20
  4. 4 TB 29 ATL 21
  5. 5 TB 17 ATL 13
  6. 6 TB 26 ATL 24
  7. 7 TB 24 ATL 27
  8. 8 TB 32 ATL 38
  9. 9 TB 24 ATL 34
  10. 10 TB 17 ATL 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 65% of them, Falcons 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+17.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.1%
Buccaneers by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation2.5%
Falcons by 1–819.5%
Falcons by 9–169.7%
Falcons by 17+4.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 7.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 80% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • Y. Koo, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:00 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q4 6:36 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Greg Gaines), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3228 snaps before, position avg 1 per 373 +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 3:42 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +13% TB ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:01 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +18% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:32 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% TB ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:23 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +25% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:32 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +16% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:06 Y. Koo missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +30% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (ATL WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 84% · Falcons 16%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
4.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 65% · Falcons 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

More from Week 1 2025