luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Raiders at Patriots, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Patriots 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Patriots: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:05 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 22 yards, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 20
New England Patriots 13

September 7, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +10 Raiders about even · −10 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 LV 38 NE 6
  2. 2 LV 37 NE 13
  3. 3 LV 27 NE 7
  4. 4 LV 27 NE 10
  5. 5 LV 30 NE 16
  6. 6 LV 30 NE 19
  7. 7 LV 18 NE 10
  8. 8 LV 34 NE 28
  9. 9 LV 20 NE 18
  10. 10 LV 0 NE 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Patriots

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

43 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.02 better by 0.19
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.05 +0.10 better by 0.14
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.05 +0.07 worse by 0.12
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.13 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 90% of them, Patriots 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+49.4%
Raiders by 9–1622.3%
Raiders by 1–817.6%
Level after regulation1.7%
Patriots by 1–86.2%
Patriots by 9–162.3%
Patriots by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 7, without the luck Raiders by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 40 yds missed · 89% expected
  • A. Borregales, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Carlson, 58 yds missed · 65% expected
  • D. Carlson, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • A. Borregales, 44 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 9 for 77 yards, Patriots 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:23 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.7 pts
Q1 6:22 Encroachment on the Raiders (Adam Butler), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 14:09 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +3% LV +1.3 pts
Q2 9:48 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q2 7:42 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Austin Hooper), 10 yards +2% LV +1.4 pts
Q2 4:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 22 yards +12% NE +3.3 pts
Q2 1:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yards +5% NE +1.4 pts
Q2 1:36 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Jack Gibbens), 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Elijah Ponder), 10 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 11:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Jaylinn Hawkins), 15 yards +7% LV +1.8 pts
Q3 9:39 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Raiders (Daniel Carlson), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NE 0.0 pts
Q3 6:33 Illegal Formation on the Raiders (Charles Snowden), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 4:39 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Tommy Eichenberg), 10 yards +4% NE +0.8 pts
Q3 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +4% NE +1.1 pts
Q3 0:45 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q4 4:53 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.4 pts
Q4 4:48 False Start on the Raiders (Tre Tucker), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:34 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:06 The Patriots converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:11 A. Borregales missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +8% LV NE: Field goal
4 Q2 4:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 99 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +12% NE NE: Field goal
5 Q2 1:42 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% NE LV: Punt
6 Q2 0:02 D. Carlson missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 51 of 67 from 45+ before +11% NE LV: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Jaylinn Hawkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3219 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +7% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:56 D. Carlson made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 51 of 68 from 45+ before +9% LV LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jahlani Tavai (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anfernee Jennings (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 76% · Patriots 24%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
3.9 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 90% · Patriots 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Raiders · Patriots

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