luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Texans at Rams, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Texans 14–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:58 left): Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 9
Los Angeles Rams 14

September 7, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +28 Rams lucky · −28 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 24 LA 10
  2. 2 HOU 24 LA 17
  3. 3 HOU 12 LA 10
  4. 4 HOU 14 LA 16
  5. 5 HOU 9 LA 13
  6. 6 HOU 7 LA 14
  7. 7 HOU 6 LA 17
  8. 8 HOU 17 LA 31
  9. 9 HOU 6 LA 24
  10. 10 HOU 0 LA 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 28% of them, Rams 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+2.2%
Texans by 9–166.6%
Texans by 1–815.9%
Level after regulation4.3%
Rams by 1–828.5%
Rams by 9–1621.8%
Rams by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 5, without the luck Rams by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 11 for 80 yards, Rams 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LA +1.7 pts
Q1 13:53 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q1 1:15 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Troy Reeder), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 0:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 15 yards +6% LA +1.8 pts
Q2 13:58 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% HOU +4.7 pts
Q2 0:20 Defensive Holding on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 5 yards +3% HOU +0.1 pts
Q2 0:20 False Start on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +0.4 pts
Q3 12:36 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 5 yards +1% LA +0.2 pts
Q3 12:28 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Jayden Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LA +1.2 pts
Q3 10:47 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 5:03 Illegal Contact on the Rams (Ahkello Witherspoon), 5 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 3:59 Face Mask on the Texans, 15 yards +7% LA +1.7 pts
Q3 0:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Darrell Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LA +0.6 pts
Q4 14:18 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 12:53 Encroachment on the Texans (E.J. Speed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.7 pts
Q4 2:31 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yards · pre-snap +8% LA +0.7 pts
Q4 2:04 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 15 yards +11% HOU +2.0 pts
Q4 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:29 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 1:27 D. Schultz dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 221 catchable balls before this +8% LA HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 13:58 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4738 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +19% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q2 0:57 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +10% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:59 Face Mask on the Texans, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% LA LA: Punt
6 Q4 2:31 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 703 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +8% LA LA: End of game
7 Q4 2:04 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1836 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +11% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 1:51 The Texans fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 25% · Rams 75%

Final margin
Rams by 5
Luck in points
1.5 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Texans 28% · Rams 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Texans · Rams

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