luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Texans at Rams, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Texans 14–9, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Rams win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 1.8 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:58 left): Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 9
Los Angeles Rams 14

September 7, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +42 Rams lucky · −42 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 4, Rams win 6.

  1. 1 HOU 23 LA 6
  2. 2 HOU 24 LA 14
  3. 3 HOU 22 LA 17
  4. 4 HOU 19 LA 17
  5. 5 HOU 17 LA 19
  6. 6 HOU 17 LA 21
  7. 7 HOU 13 LA 20
  8. 8 HOU 6 LA 16
  9. 9 HOU 17 LA 31
  10. 10 HOU 0 LA 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 42% of them, Rams 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+5.3%
Texans by 9–1612.7%
Texans by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation3.3%
Rams by 1–829.6%
Rams by 9–1616.0%
Rams by 17+12.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 7.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:29 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 1:27 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedD. Schultz dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 221 catchable balls before this +10% LA HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 13:58 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4738 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +18% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q2 5:34 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% LA HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 0:57 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +14% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:31 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 703 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +8% LA LA: End of game
7 Q4 2:04 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1836 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +12% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 1:51 The Texans fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 17% · Rams 83%

Final margin
Rams by 5
Luck in points
2.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 42% · Rams 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Texans · Rams

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