Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025
Steelers at Jets, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Jets 34–32, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers.
The Steelers won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 20 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 34 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +93 Steelers very lucky · −93 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Jets win 9.
- 1 PIT 24 NYJ 17
- 2 PIT 27 NYJ 28
- 3 PIT 14 NYJ 19
- 4 PIT 28 NYJ 37
- 5 PIT 13 NYJ 26
- 6 PIT 20 NYJ 34
- 7 PIT 23 NYJ 40
- 8 PIT 24 NYJ 45
- 9 PIT 21 NYJ 46
- 10 PIT 17 NYJ 52
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Steelers won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
48 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | +0.06 | better by 0.11 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.11 | worse by 0.10 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.09 | better by 0.13 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.09 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 7% of them, Jets 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Jets by 17+ | 55.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 35 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 73% expected
- N. Folk, 51 yds made · 75% expected
- C. Boswell, 60 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Steelers 4 for 26 yards, Jets 7 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:25 | Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.1 pts |
| Q2 5:06 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yards | +5% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:32 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +1.2 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 15 yards | +2% NYJ +1.1 pts |
| Q3 10:59 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:02 | False Start on the Jets (Tyler Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 15 yards | +5% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q4 9:21 | Low Block on the Steelers (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards | +2% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:29 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 10 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:46 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Brandon Stephens), 19 yards | +9% PIT +0.8 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:22 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +11% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:25 | The Jets’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 1 yardPre-snap flags | +10% PIT | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 14:57 | The Jets fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% PIT | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 7:06 | The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +13% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 6:12 | The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +13% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 1:08 | C. Boswell made a 60-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 59 of 72 from 45+ before | +12% PIT | PIT: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:30 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +11% PIT | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:25 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +20% PIT | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 15% · Jets 85%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 2
- Luck in points
- 8.9 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 6.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 7% · Jets 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Steelers · 
Jets
More from Week 1 2025
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 24–20 · replay 67% for the winner
- Chiefs vs Chargers LAC 27–21 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at Saints ARI 20–13 · replay 38% for the winner
- Panthers at Jaguars JAX 26–10 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CIN 17–16 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots LV 20–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts IND 33–8 · replay 94% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders WAS 21–6 · replay 97% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 23–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 17–13 · replay 53% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos DEN 20–12 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 27–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Texans at Rams LA 14–9 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ravens at Bills BUF 41–40 · replay 49% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 27–24 · replay 93% for the winner