luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Steelers at Jets, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers stole one. They beat the Jets 34–32, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Steelers.

The Steelers won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 20 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 34
New York Jets 32

September 7, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +88 Steelers very lucky · −88 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Jets win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 22 NYJ 15
  2. 2 PIT 17 NYJ 20
  3. 3 PIT 14 NYJ 20
  4. 4 PIT 14 NYJ 24
  5. 5 PIT 17 NYJ 29
  6. 6 PIT 6 NYJ 20
  7. 7 PIT 16 NYJ 33
  8. 8 PIT 23 NYJ 43
  9. 9 PIT 10 NYJ 34
  10. 10 PIT 3 NYJ 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Steelers won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.

44 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.06 better by 0.11
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.11 worse by 0.10
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.09 better by 0.13
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.09 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 12% of them, Jets 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.9%
Steelers by 9–162.9%
Steelers by 1–87.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Jets by 1–820.1%
Jets by 9–1624.1%
Jets by 17+42.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Boswell, 60 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:22 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:25 The Jets’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 1 yardsPre-snap flags +10% PIT NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:57 The Jets fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% PIT NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:06 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +20% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:12 The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% PIT PIT: Punt
6 Q4 1:08 C. Boswell made 60-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 59 of 72 from 45+ before +13% PIT PIT: End of game
7 Q4 0:30 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +11% PIT NYJ: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:25 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +20% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 18% · Jets 82%

Final margin
Steelers by 2
Luck in points
8.6 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 12% · Jets 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Steelers · Jets

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