luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · September 4, 2025–September 8

Week 1 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Cardinals beat the Saints 20–13 in a game they win 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 1 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Chargers 27–21 vs Chiefs 41% 85% Deserved
Raiders 20–13 @ Patriots 43% 90% Deserved
Bills 41–40 vs Ravens 46% 49% Coin flip

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 34–32 @ Jets 7% +93
2 Cardinals W 20–13 @ Saints 38% +62
3 Bills W 41–40 vs Ravens 49% +51
4 49ers W 17–13 @ Seahawks 53% +47
5 Jaguars W 26–10 vs Panthers 65% +35
6 Eagles W 24–20 vs Cowboys 67% +33
7 Buccaneers W 23–20 @ Falcons 70% +30
8 Rams W 14–9 vs Texans 72% +28
9 Bengals W 17–16 @ Browns 72% +28
10 Packers W 27–13 vs Lions 78% +22
11 Chargers W 27–21 vs Chiefs 85% +15
12 Broncos W 20–12 vs Titans 87% +13
13 Raiders W 20–13 @ Patriots 90% +10
14 Vikings W 27–24 @ Bears 93% +7
15 Colts W 33–8 vs Dolphins 94% +6
16 Commanders W 21–6 vs Giants 97% +3
17 Giants L 6–21 @ Commanders 3% −3
18 Dolphins L 8–33 @ Colts 6% −6
19 Bears L 24–27 vs Vikings 7% −7
20 Patriots L 13–20 vs Raiders 10% −10
21 Titans L 12–20 @ Broncos 13% −13
22 Chiefs L 21–27 @ Chargers 15% −15
23 Lions L 13–27 @ Packers 22% −22
24 Browns L 16–17 vs Bengals 28% −28
25 Texans L 9–14 @ Rams 28% −28
26 Falcons L 20–23 vs Buccaneers 30% −30
27 Cowboys L 20–24 @ Eagles 33% −33
28 Panthers L 10–26 @ Jaguars 35% −35
29 Seahawks L 13–17 vs 49ers 47% −47
30 Ravens L 40–41 @ Bills 51% −51
31 Saints L 13–20 vs Cardinals 62% −62
32 Jets L 32–34 vs Steelers 93% −93