luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Lions at Packers, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Lions 27–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:12 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Detroit Lions 13
Green Bay Packers 27

September 7, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −1.5

Luck index +25 Packers about even · −25 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 2, Packers win 8.

  1. 1 DET 20 GB 10
  2. 2 DET 19 GB 16
  3. 3 DET 14 GB 16
  4. 4 DET 21 GB 24
  5. 5 DET 10 GB 17
  6. 6 DET 9 GB 19
  7. 7 DET 7 GB 19
  8. 8 DET 9 GB 23
  9. 9 DET 10 GB 28
  10. 10 DET 14 GB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 25% of them, Packers 75%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+2.4%
Lions by 9–165.9%
Lions by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation4.7%
Packers by 1–827.7%
Packers by 9–1622.7%
Packers by 17+22.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 15.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Bates, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Bates, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:07 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:15 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:33 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 1937 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +5% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:31 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:05 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
6 Q2 13:41 Taunting on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 4645 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +5% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q2 2:24 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% DET DET: Turnover
8 Q2 1:12 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% GB DET: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 14
Luck in points
1.3 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 15.3
Replay with same day's form
Lions 25% · Packers 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Lions · Packers

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