luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Giants at Commanders, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Giants 21–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 1 yard, worth 9 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 6
Washington Commanders 21

September 7, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −6

Luck index +3 Commanders about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 20 WAS 23
  2. 2 NYG 3 WAS 8
  3. 3 NYG 13 WAS 21
  4. 4 NYG 8 WAS 20
  5. 5 NYG 3 WAS 17
  6. 6 NYG 13 WAS 30
  7. 7 NYG 12 WAS 31
  8. 8 NYG 7 WAS 30
  9. 9 NYG 3 WAS 30
  10. 10 NYG 0 WAS 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 3% of them, Commanders 97%. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.5%
Giants by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Commanders by 1–88.9%
Commanders by 9–1621.5%
Commanders by 17+66.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to the Giants: the final margin was Commanders by 15, without the luck Commanders by 24.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 35 yards, Commanders 12 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:47 False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q1 11:13 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Jonathan Jones), 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 1:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 9 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 1 yard +9% NYG +2.6 pts
Q2 9:38 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 9:16 Offensive Offside on the Commanders (Noah Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% NYG +2.3 pts
Q2 7:25 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jevon Holland), 5 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 5:19 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Von Miller), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 3:15 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 0:07 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Jayden Daniels), 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 10:38 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +3% NYG +1.2 pts
Q3 3:14 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.2 pts
Q3 3:07 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% WAS +2.4 pts
Q3 1:01 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Tyler Nubin), 5 yards +3% WAS +1.3 pts
Q4 9:42 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +1% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 8:06 False Start on the Commanders (Austin Ekeler), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 6:01 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 3:59 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Bobby Wagner), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYG +6.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:52 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +6% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 12:47 Z. Ertz dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 185 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 22 flags in 4346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +5% NYG WAS: Punt
3 Q1 0:43 T. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 33 catchable balls before this +4% WAS NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 1 yardJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3692 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q2 13:27 D. Samuel dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 221 catchable balls before this +4% NYG WAS: Punt
6 Q2 9:16 Offensive Offside on the Commanders (Noah Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 2877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +6% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q2 0:07 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Commanders (Jayden Daniels), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1285 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +6% NYG WAS: Punt
8 Q3 3:07 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% WAS WAS: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Commanders 100%

Final margin
Commanders by 15
Luck in points
9.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 24.8
Replay with same day's form
Giants 3% · Commanders 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Giants · Commanders

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