luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Giants at Commanders, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Giants 21–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13.8 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:07 left): the Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 6
Washington Commanders 21

September 7, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −6

Luck index +1 Commanders about even · −1 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 13 WAS 16
  2. 2 NYG 10 WAS 17
  3. 3 NYG 17 WAS 27
  4. 4 NYG 10 WAS 23
  5. 5 NYG 7 WAS 23
  6. 6 NYG 9 WAS 27
  7. 7 NYG 9 WAS 30
  8. 8 NYG 0 WAS 24
  9. 9 NYG 14 WAS 41
  10. 10 NYG 0 WAS 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 1% of them, Commanders 99%. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.2%
Giants by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.2%
Commanders by 1–84.4%
Commanders by 9–1614.5%
Commanders by 17+79.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 34.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:52 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 12:47 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedZ. Ertz dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 185 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 22 flags in 4346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% NYG WAS: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 1 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3692 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 9:16 Offensive Offside on the Commanders (Noah Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 2877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +6% NYG NYG: Punt
5 Q2 0:07 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Commanders (Jayden Daniels), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1285 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +11% NYG WAS: Punt
6 Q3 5:43 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
7 Q3 3:07 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% WAS WAS: Punt
8 Q4 3:59 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Bobby Wagner), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 7521 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Commanders 100%

Final margin
Commanders by 15
Luck in points
19.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 34.8
Replay with same day's form
Giants 1% · Commanders 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Giants · Commanders

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