2025 season · final

Washington Commanders, 2025: game by game

The Commanders went 5–12 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.0 wins. Luck cost them 3.0: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Giants	W 21–6	97%	+3
Week 2	@ Packers	L 18–27	9%	−9
Week 3	vs Raiders	W 41–24	90%	+10
Week 4	@ Falcons	L 27–34	22%	−22
Week 5	@ Chargers	W 27–10	90%	+10
Week 6	vs Bears	L 24–25	65%	−65
Week 7	@ Cowboys	L 22–44	22%	−22
Week 8	@ Chiefs	L 7–28	35%	−35
Week 9	vs Seahawks	L 14–38	18%	−18
Week 10	vs Lions	L 22–44	15%	−15
Week 11	vs Dolphins	L 13–16	43%	−43
Week 13	vs Broncos	L 26–27	51%	−51
Week 14	@ Vikings	L 0–31	33%	−33
Week 15	@ Giants	W 29–21	58%	+42
Week 16	vs Eagles	L 18–29	24%	−24
Week 17	vs Cowboys	L 23–30	82%	−82
Week 18	@ Eagles	W 24–17	43%	+57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +3 vs NYG

Wk 2 −9 @ GB

Wk 3 +10 vs LV

Wk 4 −22 @ ATL

Wk 5 +10 @ LAC

Wk 6 −65 vs CHI

Wk 7 −22 @ DAL

Wk 8 −35 @ KC

Wk 9 −18 vs SEA

Wk 10 −15 vs DET

Wk 11 −43 @ MIA

Wk 13 −51 vs DEN

Wk 14 −33 @ MIN

Wk 15 +42 @ NYG

Wk 16 −24 vs PHI

Wk 17 −82 vs DAL

Wk 18 +57 @ PHI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Drops	+0.25	−5.8
Judgment calls	+0.23	+4.6
Rest	−0.07	−2.6
Kicks	−0.61	−0.7
Fumble bounces	−0.64	−19.5
Injuries	−0.65	−25.6