luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Commanders at Chargers, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Chargers 27–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 8 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.5 points to the Chargers.

An off day for the Chargers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:44 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 20 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 27
Los Angeles Chargers 10

October 5, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +18 Commanders about even · −18 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 8, Chargers win 2.

  1. 1 WAS 34 LAC 7
  2. 2 WAS 33 LAC 14
  3. 3 WAS 26 LAC 10
  4. 4 WAS 27 LAC 14
  5. 5 WAS 31 LAC 21
  6. 6 WAS 14 LAC 7
  7. 7 WAS 17 LAC 13
  8. 8 WAS 16 LAC 14
  9. 9 WAS 20 LAC 23
  10. 10 WAS 10 LAC 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Chargers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.

31 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained +0.35 +0.14 better by 0.21
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.00 +0.11 better by 0.11
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained −0.00 +0.10 worse by 0.10
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.35 +0.04 worse by 0.31

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 82% of them, Chargers 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+28.7%
Commanders by 9–1624.6%
Commanders by 1–827.5%
Level after regulation2.1%
Chargers by 1–810.1%
Chargers by 9–165.6%
Chargers by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 23.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 55 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Gay, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +10% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:34 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 1483 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:50 Roughing the Kicker on the Chargers (Marlowe Wax), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 68 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +15% LAC WAS: Field goal
4 Q2 0:05 M. Gay made 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +8% LAC WAS: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q3 9:57 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 10:22 The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% LAC LAC: Turnover
8 Q4 7:44 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% WAS LAC: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Khalil Mack (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Will Dissly (LAC TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Harris (LAC LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Brandon Coleman (WAS T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 100% · Chargers 0%

Final margin
Commanders by 17
Luck in points
6.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 23.1
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 82% · Chargers 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Commanders · Chargers

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