luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · October 2, 2025–October 6

Week 5 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the 49ers beat the Rams 26–23 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
49ers 26–23 @ Rams 26% 26% Lucky
Titans 22–21 @ Cardinals 29% 51% Coin flip
Patriots 23–20 @ Bills 29% 54% Coin flip
Jaguars 31–28 vs Chiefs 40% 31% Lucky
Broncos 21–17 @ Eagles 40% 82% Deserved
Buccaneers 38–35 @ Seahawks 40% 53% Coin flip
Commanders 27–10 @ Chargers 43% 90% Deserved
Cowboys 37–22 @ Jets 46% 92% Deserved
Panthers 27–24 vs Dolphins 46% 62% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 49ers W 26–23 @ Rams 26% +74
2 Jaguars W 31–28 vs Chiefs 31% +69
3 Titans W 22–21 @ Cardinals 51% +49
4 Vikings W 21–17 @ Browns 52% +48
5 Buccaneers W 38–35 @ Seahawks 53% +47
6 Patriots W 23–20 @ Bills 54% +46
7 Panthers W 27–24 vs Dolphins 62% +38
8 Texans W 44–10 @ Ravens 79% +21
9 Broncos W 21–17 @ Eagles 82% +18
10 Saints W 26–14 vs Giants 85% +15
11 Colts W 40–6 vs Raiders 86% +14
12 Commanders W 27–10 @ Chargers 90% +10
13 Cowboys W 37–22 @ Jets 92% +8
14 Lions W 37–24 @ Bengals 99% +1
15 Bengals L 24–37 vs Lions 1% −1
16 Jets L 22–37 vs Cowboys 8% −8
17 Chargers L 10–27 vs Commanders 10% −10
18 Raiders L 6–40 @ Colts 14% −14
19 Giants L 14–26 @ Saints 15% −15
20 Eagles L 17–21 vs Broncos 18% −18
21 Ravens L 10–44 vs Texans 21% −21
22 Dolphins L 24–27 @ Panthers 38% −38
23 Bills L 20–23 vs Patriots 46% −46
24 Seahawks L 35–38 vs Buccaneers 47% −47
25 Browns L 17–21 vs Vikings 48% −48
26 Cardinals L 21–22 vs Titans 49% −49
27 Chiefs L 28–31 @ Jaguars 69% −69
28 Rams L 23–26 vs 49ers 74% −74