luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Lions at Bengals, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Bengals 37–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 78% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 37
Cincinnati Bengals 24

October 5, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Lions −10.5

Luck index +1 Lions about even · −1 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 10, Bengals win 0.

  1. 1 DET 37 CIN 0
  2. 2 DET 37 CIN 7
  3. 3 DET 41 CIN 14
  4. 4 DET 23 CIN 0
  5. 5 DET 30 CIN 10
  6. 6 DET 40 CIN 22
  7. 7 DET 37 CIN 22
  8. 8 DET 30 CIN 18
  9. 9 DET 24 CIN 16
  10. 10 DET 23 CIN 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 99% of them, Bengals 1%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+81.8%
Lions by 9–1613.0%
Lions by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.1%
Bengals by 1–81.1%
Bengals by 9–160.2%
Bengals by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.6 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Lions by 13, without the luck Lions by 22.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Lions 8 for 56 yards, Bengals 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:57 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% CIN +2.0 pts
Q1 9:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Kerby Joseph), 15 yards +4% CIN +1.8 pts
Q1 8:59 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 3:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions (Grant Stuard), 10 yards 0% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 13:19 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Kris Jenkins), 1 yard +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 6:33 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Josh Newton), 4 yards +1% DET +0.3 pts
Q2 5:41 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 5:21 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 0:47 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q3 12:03 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% CIN +1.7 pts
Q3 2:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 2 yards 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 0:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 4 yards 0% CIN +2.6 pts
Q4 14:04 False Start on the Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q4 1:49 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bengals (Ryan Rehkow), 10 yards 0% DET +0.9 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:57 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2699 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +6% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q1 9:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Kerby Joseph), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 3705 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +4% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q1 8:59 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% DET CIN: Punt
4 Q1 4:56 The Lions fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN DET: Punt
5 Q2 14:49 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +4% DET CIN: Punt
6 Q2 5:41 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1206 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +3% CIN CIN: Turnover
7 Q2 0:03 E. McPherson made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 42 of 59 from 45+ before +5% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q3 12:03 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% CIN CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 4.9 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Lions by 13
Luck in points
9.6 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 22.6
Replay with same day's form
Lions 99% · Bengals 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Lions · Bengals

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