luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Lions at Bengals, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Bengals 37–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.8 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Lions were 78% favorites.

Final

Detroit Lions 37
Cincinnati Bengals 24

October 5, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Lions −10.5

Luck index +4 Lions about even · −4 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 10, Bengals win 0.

  1. 1 DET 45 CIN 10
  2. 2 DET 33 CIN 3
  3. 3 DET 48 CIN 23
  4. 4 DET 38 CIN 17
  5. 5 DET 41 CIN 24
  6. 6 DET 23 CIN 7
  7. 7 DET 20 CIN 7
  8. 8 DET 31 CIN 21
  9. 9 DET 27 CIN 20
  10. 10 DET 23 CIN 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 96% of them, Bengals 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+73.5%
Lions by 9–1616.4%
Lions by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bengals by 1–81.8%
Bengals by 9–160.8%
Bengals by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 23.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:57 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2699 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +5% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q1 9:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Kerby Joseph), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 3705 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +4% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q1 8:59 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% DET CIN: Punt
4 Q1 4:56 The Lions fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN DET: Punt
5 Q2 14:49 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% DET CIN: Punt
6 Q2 0:03 E. McPherson made 50-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 42 of 59 from 45+ before +4% CIN CIN: Turnover
7 Q3 12:03 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% CIN CIN: Punt
8 Q4 10:31 The Bengals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +3% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 4.9 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Lions by 13
Luck in points
10.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 23.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 96% · Bengals 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Lions · Bengals

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