luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Dolphins at Panthers, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Dolphins 27–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:31 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 5, worth 28 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 24
Carolina Panthers 27

October 5, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −1.5

Luck index +38 Panthers lucky · −38 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 MIA 33 CAR 14
  2. 2 MIA 27 CAR 16
  3. 3 MIA 27 CAR 22
  4. 4 MIA 22 CAR 20
  5. 5 MIA 12 CAR 15
  6. 6 MIA 10 CAR 16
  7. 7 MIA 20 CAR 30
  8. 8 MIA 3 CAR 16
  9. 9 MIA 3 CAR 20
  10. 10 MIA 10 CAR 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 38% of them, Panthers 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+5.9%
Dolphins by 9–1610.9%
Dolphins by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation2.9%
Panthers by 1–826.2%
Panthers by 9–1616.7%
Panthers by 17+16.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 3, without the luck Dolphins by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 49 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 9 for 64 yards, Panthers 8 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:35 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIA +0.4 pts
Q2 14:01 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.2 pts
Q2 10:07 False Start on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:58 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 0:28 False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:07 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.2 pts
Q3 14:01 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q3 11:26 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% CAR +2.5 pts
Q3 7:24 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 13:29 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.5 pts
Q4 10:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins (Matthew Butler), 5 yards +1% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 7:53 Hip Drop Tackle on the Dolphins (Chop Robinson), 14 yards +4% CAR +1.0 pts
Q4 7:49 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.3 pts
Q4 4:42 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Thomas Incoom), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.9 pts
Q4 4:31 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 5 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 0:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 10 yards +1% CAR +0.3 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:13 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% CAR CAR: Turnover
2 Q1 6:37 The Panthers fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA CAR: Turnover
3 Q1 3:12 The Dolphins converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:26 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q4 3:36 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% MIA CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:31 The Panthers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +28% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:54 J. Waddle dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 268 catchable balls before this +14% CAR MIA: Punt
8 Q4 1:46 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% CAR MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 63% · Panthers 37%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
5.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 38% · Panthers 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Dolphins · Panthers

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