luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Dolphins at Panthers, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Dolphins 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Dolphins.

An off day for the Dolphins: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:31 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 5, worth 28 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 24
Carolina Panthers 27

October 5, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −1.5

Luck index +21 Panthers about even · −21 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Panthers win 8.

  1. 1 MIA 24 CAR 12
  2. 2 MIA 16 CAR 13
  3. 3 MIA 10 CAR 12
  4. 4 MIA 17 CAR 20
  5. 5 MIA 17 CAR 23
  6. 6 MIA 15 CAR 24
  7. 7 MIA 9 CAR 21
  8. 8 MIA 10 CAR 26
  9. 9 MIA 10 CAR 30
  10. 10 MIA 3 CAR 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Dolphins

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.

32 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.09 better by 0.00
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.32 +0.12 worse by 0.20
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.32 +0.06 better by 0.26
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.18 better by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 21% of them, Panthers 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+2.2%
Dolphins by 9–165.4%
Dolphins by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Panthers by 1–827.6%
Panthers by 9–1621.1%
Panthers by 17+29.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 49 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:58 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% MIA MIA: Field goal
2 Q1 8:13 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% CAR CAR: Turnover
3 Q1 6:37 The Panthers fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA CAR: Turnover
4 Q1 3:15 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedD. Achane dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 130 catchable balls before this +10% CAR MIA: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:26 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CAR CAR: Punt
6 Q4 3:31 The Panthers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +28% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:54 J. Waddle dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 268 catchable balls before this +22% CAR MIA: Punt
8 Q4 1:46 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% CAR MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 80% · Panthers 20%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
8.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 21% · Panthers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Dolphins · Panthers

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