luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Buccaneers at Seahawks, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Seahawks 38–35, but the Seahawks played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.4 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:25 left): the Seahawks converted 4th & 2, worth 25 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38
Seattle Seahawks 35

October 5, 2025 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +66 Buccaneers very lucky · −66 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Seahawks win 7.

  1. 1 TB 59 SEA 41
  2. 2 TB 26 SEA 17
  3. 3 TB 24 SEA 20
  4. 4 TB 26 SEA 28
  5. 5 TB 37 SEA 41
  6. 6 TB 20 SEA 27
  7. 7 TB 24 SEA 34
  8. 8 TB 14 SEA 27
  9. 9 TB 14 SEA 31
  10. 10 TB 16 SEA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 34% of them, Seahawks 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+5.2%
Buccaneers by 9–168.6%
Buccaneers by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Seahawks by 1–825.9%
Seahawks by 9–1619.1%
Seahawks by 17+19.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 2.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:10 J. Myers missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +14% TB SEA: Punt
2 Q3 7:56 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +16% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q3 4:17 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:37 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +23% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:37 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +19% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:25 The Seahawks converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +25% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:58 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% TB –
8 Q4 0:03 C. McLaughlin made 39-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +19% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • DeMarcus Lawrence (SEA DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 31% · Seahawks 69%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
5.0 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 34% · Seahawks 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Buccaneers · Seahawks

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