NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Buccaneers have won 66 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 72.2. Luck cost them 6.2 wins. Their luckiest season was 2023 (+1.1 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−3.7).
2026: 3–6 so far, replay wins 2.8 (+0.2 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3–6 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 1–6 | +0.04 | – |
| 2025 | 8–9 | 8.6 | −0.6 | 6–6 | −0.12 | – |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 10.6 | −0.6 | 3–5 | +0.38 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 3–4 | 0.00 | 1–1 |
| 2022 | 8–9 | 9.1 | −1.1 | 6–4 | −0.30 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 13–4 | 14.7 | −1.7 | 6–0 | −0.54 | 1–1 |
| 2020 | 11–5 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 3–3 | +0.47 | 4–0 |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 10.7 | −3.7 | 3–6 | −0.50 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −0.6 | +0.41 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.10 |
| 2024 | −0.6 | +0.74 | +0.66 | −0.48 | +0.19 | +0.14 | −0.04 |
| 2023 | +1.1 | +0.20 | +0.29 | −0.34 | 0.00 | +0.31 | +0.21 |
| 2022 | −1.1 | −0.24 | −0.58 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.23 | −0.50 |
| 2021 | −1.7 | −0.31 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.17 | +0.14 |
| 2020 | +0.4 | −0.14 | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.07 |
| 2019 | −3.7 | +0.66 | −0.81 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.31 | +0.26 |
| Since 2019 | −6.2 | +1.33 | +0.49 | −0.88 | −0.31 | +0.99 | −0.09 |
Are the Buccaneers lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Buccaneers have won 66 regular-season games from play worth 72.2: −6.2 wins of luck, the 5th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Buccaneers had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from drops (−0.9 wins) and judgment calls (−0.3 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 30–28 since 2019, where the replays give them 32.3 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Buccaneers’ luckiest season?
2023: 9–8 from play worth 7.9 wins, +1.1 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2019: 7–9 from play worth 10.7 (−3.7).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Buccaneers’ luckiest wins
Wins the Buccaneers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 5 | @ Cowboys | W 24–16 | 4% | +96 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Cardinals | W 20–17 | 7% | +93 |
| 2022 Week 13 | vs Saints | W 17–16 | 14% | +86 |
| 2024 Week 2 | @ Lions | W 20–16 | 16% | +84 |
| 2023 Week 1 | @ Vikings | W 20–17 | 18% | +82 |
The Buccaneers’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Buccaneers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 16 | vs Texans | L 20–23 | 93% | −93 |
| 2022 Week 6 | @ Steelers | L 18–20 | 87% | −87 |
| 2019 Week 17 | vs Falcons | L 22–28 | 87% | −87 |
| 2019 Week 8 | @ Titans | L 23–27 | 84% | −84 |
| 2021 Week 15 | vs Saints | L 0–9 | 84% | −84 |
