luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 5, 2022

Saints at Buccaneers, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Saints 17–16, but the Saints played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 2.9 points to the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:19 left): Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 57 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

December 5, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3.5

Luck index +75 Buccaneers very lucky · −75 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 8, Buccaneers win 2.

  1. 1 NO 37 TB 9
  2. 2 NO 33 TB 13
  3. 3 NO 36 TB 20
  4. 4 NO 19 TB 7
  5. 5 NO 30 TB 21
  6. 6 NO 23 TB 17
  7. 7 NO 24 TB 20
  8. 8 NO 12 TB 10
  9. 9 NO 20 TB 23
  10. 10 NO 3 TB 15

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Buccaneers won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.

34 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Saints offenseEPA per play gained +0.03 +0.06 worse by 0.04
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.05 worse by 0.02
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.11 worse by 0.03
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.03 +0.07 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 75% of them, Buccaneers 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+24.0%
Saints by 9–1623.7%
Saints by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation3.7%
Buccaneers by 1–813.9%
Buccaneers by 9–167.0%
Buccaneers by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • W. Lutz, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:24 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% TB TB: Punt
2 Q2 11:02 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:59 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:47 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedT. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 9 catchable balls before this +11% TB NO: Punt
5 Q4 0:58 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +57% NO NO: End of game
7 Q4 0:08 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +42% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 The Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Leverage on the Saints (Tanoh Kpassagnon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2458 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +30% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Juwan Johnson (NO TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 57% · Buccaneers 43%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 1
Luck in points
1.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 75% · Buccaneers 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Saints · Buccaneers

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