luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Packers at Bears, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bears 28–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:57 left): the Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 15 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 28
Chicago Bears 19

December 4, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +19 Packers about even · −19 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Bears win 2.

  1. 1 GB 44 CHI 14
  2. 2 GB 44 CHI 21
  3. 3 GB 30 CHI 13
  4. 4 GB 38 CHI 24
  5. 5 GB 32 CHI 20
  6. 6 GB 30 CHI 22
  7. 7 GB 26 CHI 21
  8. 8 GB 16 CHI 14
  9. 9 GB 31 CHI 34
  10. 10 GB 17 CHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 81% of them, Bears 19%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+29.7%
Packers by 9–1622.4%
Packers by 1–826.4%
Level after regulation3.0%
Bears by 1–811.1%
Bears by 9–165.3%
Bears by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 9, without the luck Packers by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 40 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Crosby, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Santos, 40 yds blocked · 85% expected
  • M. Crosby, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 2 for 20 yards, Bears 5 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 13:26 Fair Catch Interference on the Packers, 15 yards +2% CHI +1.4 pts
Q3 12:37 False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q3 10:51 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 4:32 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +1% GB +1.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 38 yards +7% GB +2.6 pts
Q4 14:53 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards +2% GB +0.3 pts
Q4 1:11 Illegal Shift on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:44 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% CHI CHI: Turnover
2 Q2 0:23 The Packers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q3 7:14 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% CHI CHI: Field goal
4 Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 38 yardsJudgment calls +7% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:44 C. Santos had a 40-yard field goal blockedKicks · 85% expected for him +15% GB CHI: Turnover
6 Q4 6:23 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q4 4:57 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% CHI GB: Field goal
8 Q4 2:57 The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +15% GB CHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Siemian (CHI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.fields · 0.9 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Larry Borom (CHI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.4 pts
  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 71% · Bears 29%

Final margin
Packers by 9
Luck in points
7.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 81% · Bears 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Packers · Bears

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