luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Chiefs at Bengals, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Chiefs 27–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:24 left): H. Butker missed a 55-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 24
Cincinnati Bengals 27

December 4, 2022 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −2.5

Luck index +35 Bengals lucky · −35 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Bengals win 6.

  1. 1 KC 38 CIN 23
  2. 2 KC 33 CIN 26
  3. 3 KC 38 CIN 34
  4. 4 KC 24 CIN 23
  5. 5 KC 21 CIN 23
  6. 6 KC 23 CIN 27
  7. 7 KC 24 CIN 31
  8. 8 KC 16 CIN 26
  9. 9 KC 6 CIN 20
  10. 10 KC 10 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 35% of them, Bengals 65%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+3.5%
Chiefs by 9–1610.5%
Chiefs by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation4.4%
Bengals by 1–833.0%
Bengals by 9–1616.7%
Bengals by 17+11.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. McPherson, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • H. Butker, 55 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 4 for 35 yards, Bengals 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% CIN +4.7 pts
Q1 1:23 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs, 15 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 13:39 Taunting on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 15 yards +4% KC +1.4 pts
Q2 12:10 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% CIN +3.4 pts
Q2 11:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% KC +2.4 pts
Q2 2:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (D.J. Reader), 15 yards +5% KC +1.4 pts
Q3 2:26 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +2% KC +1.0 pts
Q3 0:54 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Carlos Dunlap), 5 yards +3% CIN +0.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bengals, 5 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 10:52 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:10 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q2 0:51 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% KC CIN: Field goal
4 Q3 7:24 T. Boyd dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 46 catchable balls before this +8% KC CIN: Field goal
5 Q3 5:45 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:57 The Chiefs converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:09 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% CIN KC: Missed field goal
8 Q4 3:24 H. Butker missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 28 of 38 from 45+ before +19% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin Huber (CIN P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Thuney (KC G), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 64% · Bengals 36%

Final margin
Bengals by 3
Luck in points
4.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 35% · Bengals 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Chiefs · Bengals

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