luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Broncos at Ravens, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Broncos 10–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): B. McManus missed 63-yard field goal, worth 75 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Denver Broncos 9
Baltimore Ravens 10

December 4, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +40 Ravens lucky · −40 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Ravens win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 30 BAL 13
  2. 2 DEN 23 BAL 13
  3. 3 DEN 23 BAL 17
  4. 4 DEN 20 BAL 17
  5. 5 DEN 15 BAL 17
  6. 6 DEN 16 BAL 20
  7. 7 DEN 20 BAL 28
  8. 8 DEN 7 BAL 19
  9. 9 DEN 13 BAL 30
  10. 10 DEN 3 BAL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 40% of them, Ravens 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+6.4%
Broncos by 9–1612.5%
Broncos by 1–819.5%
Level after regulation2.9%
Ravens by 1–827.9%
Ravens by 9–1615.9%
Ravens by 17+14.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 5.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Tucker, 26 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. McManus, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. McManus, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • B. McManus, 63 yds missed · 53% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:27 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% DEN DEN: Field goal
2 Q4 14:23 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% BAL BAL: Turnover
3 Q4 12:23 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% DEN BAL: Punt
4 Q4 9:49 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% BAL DEN: Punt
5 Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1619 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:13 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% DEN BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:06 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:02 B. McManus missed 63-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 42 of 59 from 45+ before +75% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Billy Turner (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 76% · Ravens 24%

Final margin
Ravens by 1
Luck in points
6.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 40% · Ravens 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Broncos · Ravens

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