AFC West
Denver Broncos: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Broncos have won 56 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 53.9. Luck added 2.1 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+3.5 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−2.7).
2026: 7–2 so far, replay wins 3.1 (+3.9 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7–2 | 3.1 | +3.9 | 6–0 | +0.91 | – |
| 2025 | 14–3 | 10.5 | +3.5 | 11–2 | −2.38 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 1–6 | −0.53 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 8–9 | 8.4 | −0.4 | 5–4 | +0.91 | – |
| 2022 | 5–12 | 7.7 | −2.7 | 4–9 | +0.65 | – |
| 2021 | 7–10 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 1–5 | +0.46 | – |
| 2020 | 5–11 | 5.6 | −0.6 | 4–6 | +0.99 | – |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 4–5 | +0.50 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +3.5 | −0.64 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −1.19 | +0.55 | +0.84 |
| 2024 | +2.7 | +0.18 | −0.19 | +0.18 | −0.27 | +0.59 | −0.01 |
| 2023 | −0.4 | −0.60 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.46 | +0.69 | +0.22 |
| 2022 | −2.7 | −0.29 | −1.10 | +0.39 | +0.33 | −0.34 | −0.01 |
| 2021 | −1.1 | −0.71 | −0.10 | 0.00 | +0.23 | −0.38 | +0.12 |
| 2020 | −0.6 | −0.14 | −0.36 | 0.00 | +0.49 | −0.34 | −0.03 |
| 2019 | +0.6 | +0.05 | −0.52 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.17 | +0.05 |
| Since 2019 | +2.1 | −2.16 | −2.38 | +0.56 | +0.30 | +0.95 | +1.18 |
Are the Broncos lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Broncos have won 56 regular-season games from play worth 53.9: +2.1 wins of luck, the 13th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Broncos been so lucky?
Most of it came from 3rd & 4th downs (+1.2 wins) and injuries (+0.9 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 30–37 since 2019, where the replays give them 30.3 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Broncos’ luckiest season?
2025: 14–3 from play worth 10.5 wins, +3.5 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2022: 5–12 from play worth 7.7 (−2.7).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Broncos’ luckiest wins
Wins the Broncos take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Rams | W 30–26 | 7% | +93 |
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Packers | W 34–26 | 8% | +92 |
| 2019 Week 13 | vs Chargers | W 23–20 | 13% | +87 |
| 2019 Week 17 | vs Raiders | W 16–15 | 14% | +86 |
| 2020 Week 8 | vs Chargers | W 31–30 | 17% | +83 |
The Broncos’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Broncos would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 5 | vs Colts | L 9–12 | 97% | −97 |
| 2019 Week 2 | vs Bears | L 14–16 | 90% | −90 |
| 2019 Week 4 | vs Jaguars | L 24–26 | 85% | −85 |
| 2020 Week 16 | @ Chargers | L 16–19 | 72% | −72 |
| 2022 Week 6 | @ Chargers | L 16–19 | 68% | −68 |
