AFC West
Denver Broncos: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Broncos have won 56 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 54.1. Luck added 2.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+3.3 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−2.6).
2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 0.7 (+0.3 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 1–0 | +0.48 | – |
| 2025 | 14–3 | 10.7 | +3.3 | 11–2 | −2.82 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 1–6 | −1.92 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 8–9 | 8.2 | −0.2 | 5–4 | +0.66 | – |
| 2022 | 5–12 | 7.6 | −2.6 | 4–9 | +0.84 | – |
| 2021 | 7–10 | 8.2 | −1.2 | 1–5 | +1.87 | – |
| 2020 | 5–11 | 5.7 | −0.7 | 4–6 | +2.29 | – |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 4–5 | +1.65 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Broncos take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Packers | W 34–26 | 8% | +92 |
| 2019 Week 17 | vs Raiders | W 16–15 | 13% | +87 |
| 2019 Week 13 | vs Chargers | W 23–20 | 14% | +86 |
| 2020 Week 8 | vs Chargers | W 31–30 | 18% | +82 |
| 2024 Week 5 | vs Raiders | W 34–18 | 30% | +70 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Broncos would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 5 | vs Colts | L 9–12 | 97% | −97 |
| 2019 Week 2 | vs Bears | L 14–16 | 90% | −90 |
| 2019 Week 4 | vs Jaguars | L 24–26 | 85% | −85 |
| 2020 Week 16 | @ Chargers | L 16–19 | 73% | −73 |
| 2022 Week 6 | @ Chargers | L 16–19 | 68% | −68 |
