luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 6, 2022

Colts at Broncos, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Colts stole one. They beat the Broncos 12–9, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 10 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.4 points to the Colts.

The Colts won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Broncos were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 2:38 left): the Broncos were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 74 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 12
Denver Broncos 9

October 6, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −3.5

Luck index +97 Colts very lucky · −97 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 0, Broncos win 10.

  1. 1 IND 20 DEN 23
  2. 2 IND 23 DEN 30
  3. 3 IND 23 DEN 33
  4. 4 IND 17 DEN 31
  5. 5 IND 17 DEN 34
  6. 6 IND 20 DEN 40
  7. 7 IND 6 DEN 29
  8. 8 IND 6 DEN 33
  9. 9 IND 5 DEN 36
  10. 10 IND 0 DEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Colts won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.

37 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.10 worse by 0.19
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.10 better by 0.21
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.08 worse by 0.18
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.07 better by 0.16

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 3% of them, Broncos 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.1%
Colts by 9–160.5%
Colts by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Broncos by 1–86.5%
Broncos by 9–1613.3%
Broncos by 17+77.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 4.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. McManus, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 64% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • B. McManus, 34 yds blocked · 94% expected
  • B. McManus, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 14:20 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Broncos were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% IND DEN: Punt
2 Q4 2:19 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +26% IND DEN: End of game
3 Q4 2:13 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q4 2:00 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q4 0:13 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedDelay of Game on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% DEN IND: Field goal
6 QOT 5:54 C. McLaughlin made 48-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 16 of 25 from 45+ before +18% DEN –
7 QOT 3:12 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +14% IND DEN: Turnover on downs
8 QOT 2:38 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +74% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quinn Meinerz (DEN G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 33% · Broncos 67%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
7.4 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 3% · Broncos 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Colts · Broncos

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