luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Seahawks at Saints, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Seahawks 39–32, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.3 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:33 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 1, worth 28 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 32
New Orleans Saints 39

October 9, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −5.5

Luck index +50 Saints lucky · −50 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 5, Saints win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 51 NO 27
  2. 2 SEA 48 NO 31
  3. 3 SEA 43 NO 31
  4. 4 SEA 33 NO 26
  5. 5 SEA 48 NO 45
  6. 6 SEA 26 NO 29
  7. 7 SEA 26 NO 31
  8. 8 SEA 23 NO 33
  9. 9 SEA 24 NO 40
  10. 10 SEA 13 NO 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 50% of them, Saints 50%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+15.8%
Seahawks by 9–1613.3%
Seahawks by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation4.3%
Saints by 1–819.0%
Saints by 9–1614.3%
Saints by 17+14.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 56 yds made · 63% expected
  • J. Myers, 56 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:53 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +18% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:28 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NO SEA: Field goal
3 Q2 1:50 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedD. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 30 catchable balls before this +9% NO SEA: Field goal
4 Q3 14:55 The Seahawks fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NO SEA: Punt
5 Q3 12:07 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:46 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +24% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:33 The Saints converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +28% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:15 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% NO SEA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 1.2 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Calvin Throckmorton (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Curhan (SEA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sidney Jones (SEA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • John Reid (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 74% · Saints 26%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
10.8 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 50% · Saints 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Seahawks · Saints

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