luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Seahawks at Saints, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Seahawks 39–32, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:46 left): Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 24 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 32
New Orleans Saints 39

October 9, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −5.5

Luck index +53 Saints lucky · −53 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 5, Saints win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 44 NO 20
  2. 2 SEA 43 NO 27
  3. 3 SEA 47 NO 37
  4. 4 SEA 36 NO 31
  5. 5 SEA 29 NO 27
  6. 6 SEA 16 NO 18
  7. 7 SEA 23 NO 29
  8. 8 SEA 36 NO 47
  9. 9 SEA 24 NO 40
  10. 10 SEA 35 NO 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 53% of them, Saints 47%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+15.4%
Seahawks by 9–1614.0%
Seahawks by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation4.0%
Saints by 1–818.4%
Saints by 9–1614.8%
Saints by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 7, without the luck Seahawks by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Myers, 56 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 12 for 85 yards, Saints 6 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Darrell Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.3 pts
Q1 4:33 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +1.3 pts
Q2 4:38 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts
Q2 0:35 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% SEA +2.2 pts
Q3 11:31 Defensive Holding on the Saints, 5 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 11:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 10:17 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 5:18 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q3 4:24 False Start on the Seahawks (Tyler Lockett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 3:46 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +24% NO +6.0 pts
Q3 2:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 2:52 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 27 yards +4% SEA +2.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 10:08 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks, 5 yards +1% NO +1.3 pts
Q4 7:48 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 0:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 15 yards +3% NO +1.5 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:39 W. Lutz made a 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 19 of 28 from 45+ before +6% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 6:53 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:50 D. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 30 catchable balls before this +9% NO SEA: Field goal
4 Q2 0:35 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:07 The Seahawks missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% NO SEA: Turnover
6 Q3 14:55 The Seahawks fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NO SEA: Punt
7 Q3 12:07 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:46 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +24% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 1.2 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Calvin Throckmorton (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Curhan (SEA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sidney Jones (SEA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • John Reid (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 77% · Saints 23%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
9.9 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 53% · Saints 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Seahawks · Saints

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