luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 10, 2022

Raiders at Chiefs, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 30–29, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.8 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:47 left): the Raiders were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 27 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 29
Kansas City Chiefs 30

October 10, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −7.5

Luck index +41 Chiefs lucky · −41 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Chiefs win 6.

  1. 1 LV 21 KC 3
  2. 2 LV 26 KC 16
  3. 3 LV 24 KC 19
  4. 4 LV 22 KC 19
  5. 5 LV 27 KC 28
  6. 6 LV 23 KC 27
  7. 7 LV 10 KC 17
  8. 8 LV 20 KC 31
  9. 9 LV 21 KC 38
  10. 10 LV 20 KC 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 41% of them, Chiefs 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+5.9%
Raiders by 9–1611.8%
Raiders by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation2.9%
Chiefs by 1–828.3%
Chiefs by 9–1615.8%
Chiefs by 17+14.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 41 yds missed · 86% expected
  • D. Carlson, 53 yds made · 68% expected
  • D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Wright, 59 yds made · 57% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:36 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +22% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:13 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 24 flags in 2641 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +11% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q3 6:31 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +14% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:44 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:28 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Malcolm Koonce), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 140 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +10% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:34 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +20% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:27 The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% KC LV: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:47 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +27% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Foster Moreau (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 57% · Chiefs 43%

Final margin
Chiefs by 1
Luck in points
2.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 41% · Chiefs 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Raiders · Chiefs

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