luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 10, 2022

Raiders at Chiefs, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 30–29, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:47 left): the Raiders were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 27 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 29
Kansas City Chiefs 30

October 10, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −7.5

Luck index +23 Chiefs about even · −23 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Chiefs win 8.

  1. 1 LV 25 KC 14
  2. 2 LV 17 KC 14
  3. 3 LV 19 KC 21
  4. 4 LV 19 KC 23
  5. 5 LV 16 KC 23
  6. 6 LV 20 KC 30
  7. 7 LV 16 KC 29
  8. 8 LV 7 KC 24
  9. 9 LV 21 KC 42
  10. 10 LV 13 KC 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 23% of them, Chiefs 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+2.4%
Raiders by 9–165.3%
Raiders by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.8%
Chiefs by 1–827.8%
Chiefs by 9–1621.4%
Chiefs by 17+24.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Chiefs by 1, without the luck Chiefs by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
  • D. Carlson, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Wright, 59 yds made · 60% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 11 for 99 yards, Chiefs 5 for 72 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:22 Chop Block on the Raiders, 14 yards +4% KC +1.7 pts
Q1 9:56 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 10 yards +5% KC +1.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Rashad Fenton), 25 yards +7% LV +2.6 pts
Q2 14:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 23 yards +8% LV +3.0 pts
Q2 3:59 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +5% KC +1.4 pts
Q2 1:13 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 14 yards, wiping out the play +11% LV +2.0 pts
Q2 0:17 Face Mask on the Raiders, 15 yards +5% KC +1.8 pts
Q3 11:34 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 5 yards +1% KC +0.7 pts
Q3 9:25 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% KC +1.8 pts
Q3 8:55 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.6 pts
Q3 7:54 Intentional Grounding on the Raiders (Derek Carr), 8 yards +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q3 4:38 Horse Collar Tackle on the Raiders, 2 yards +3% KC +0.6 pts
Q3 3:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Divine Deablo), 15 yards +5% KC +1.4 pts
Q4 12:10 False Start on the Chiefs (Jerick McKinnon), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.5 pts
Q4 12:09 Illegal Motion on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% LV +1.2 pts
Q4 9:28 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Malcolm Koonce), 5 yards +10% KC +2.4 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:13 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 24 flags in 2641 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +11% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q3 9:25 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1967 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +9% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:31 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q4 12:09 Illegal Motion on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 19 flags in 3558 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +8% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:44 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:28 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Malcolm Koonce), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 140 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +10% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:27 The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% KC LV: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:47 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +27% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Foster Moreau (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 36% · Chiefs 64%

Final margin
Chiefs by 1
Luck in points
1.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 23% · Chiefs 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Raiders · Chiefs

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