luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Bengals at Ravens, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 19–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.0 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Tucker made 43-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 17
Baltimore Ravens 19

October 9, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +60 Ravens lucky · −60 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 6, Ravens win 4.

  1. 1 CIN 30 BAL 7
  2. 2 CIN 37 BAL 23
  3. 3 CIN 23 BAL 13
  4. 4 CIN 20 BAL 13
  5. 5 CIN 31 BAL 27
  6. 6 CIN 16 BAL 14
  7. 7 CIN 21 BAL 23
  8. 8 CIN 10 BAL 16
  9. 9 CIN 16 BAL 27
  10. 10 CIN 3 BAL 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 60% of them, Ravens 40%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+12.2%
Bengals by 9–1616.0%
Bengals by 1–830.8%
Level after regulation3.5%
Ravens by 1–821.4%
Ravens by 9–1610.9%
Ravens by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 0.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • E. McPherson, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Tucker, 58 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 43 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:04 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2968 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q3 10:54 J. Tucker made 58-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 38 of 44 from 45+ before +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q3 8:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2227 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 2:48 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +21% BAL CIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:58 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 5:22 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:21 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 J. Tucker made 43-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +24% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ben Cleveland (BAL G), out · 0.1 pts
  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 51% · Ravens 49%

Final margin
Ravens by 2
Luck in points
1.1 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 60% · Ravens 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Bengals · Ravens

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