luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Bengals at Ravens, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 19–17, but the replays lean toward the Bengals: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:48 left): the Bengals were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 21 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 17
Baltimore Ravens 19

October 9, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +62 Ravens very lucky · −62 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 6, Ravens win 4.

  1. 1 CIN 29 BAL 6
  2. 2 CIN 29 BAL 13
  3. 3 CIN 14 BAL 3
  4. 4 CIN 30 BAL 23
  5. 5 CIN 24 BAL 20
  6. 6 CIN 18 BAL 16
  7. 7 CIN 17 BAL 19
  8. 8 CIN 21 BAL 26
  9. 9 CIN 14 BAL 23
  10. 10 CIN 13 BAL 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 62% of them, Ravens 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+13.9%
Bengals by 9–1615.3%
Bengals by 1–830.9%
Level after regulation3.4%
Ravens by 1–819.8%
Ravens by 9–1611.8%
Ravens by 17+5.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 2, without the luck Bengals by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. McPherson, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Tucker, 58 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 20 yards, Ravens 6 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:04 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% BAL +2.5 pts
Q1 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CIN +1.5 pts
Q2 7:23 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% BAL +1.4 pts
Q2 3:13 Illegal Shift on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% BAL +1.5 pts
Q3 8:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 18 yards +11% CIN +2.1 pts
Q3 4:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 6 yards +6% CIN +1.9 pts
Q4 11:52 Defensive Holding on the Bengals, 5 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 9:46 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +1.2 pts
Q4 8:12 Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 1:15 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN 0.0 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:04 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2968 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q3 8:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2227 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 4:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 6 yardsJudgment calls +6% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 2:48 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +21% BAL CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:04 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 5:22 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:21 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 J. Tucker made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +15% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ben Cleveland (BAL G), out · 0.1 pts
  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 58% · Ravens 42%

Final margin
Ravens by 2
Luck in points
2.2 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 62% · Ravens 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Bengals · Ravens

More from Week 5 2022