luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 21–15 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.9 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:52 left): Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

October 9, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −10.5

Luck index +36 Buccaneers lucky · −36 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 34 TB 14
  2. 2 ATL 20 TB 9
  3. 3 ATL 20 TB 13
  4. 4 ATL 19 TB 17
  5. 5 ATL 10 TB 12
  6. 6 ATL 13 TB 17
  7. 7 ATL 10 TB 17
  8. 8 ATL 14 TB 24
  9. 9 ATL 7 TB 22
  10. 10 ATL 7 TB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 36% of them, Buccaneers 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+4.5%
Falcons by 9–1610.9%
Falcons by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Buccaneers by 1–827.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.9%
Buccaneers by 17+16.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
  • R. Succop, 44 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:57 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% ATL TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:53 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% ATL ATL: Punt
3 Q1 0:52 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:43 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:17 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q2 1:21 R. Succop made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +7% ATL TB: Field goal
7 Q2 0:37 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
8 Q4 3:03 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +9% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Logan Ryan (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (TB WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Deion Jones (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Mayfield (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 50% · Buccaneers 50%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 6
Luck in points
6.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 36% · Buccaneers 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Falcons · Buccaneers

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