2022 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2022: game by game
The Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Cowboys | W 19–3 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 2 | @ Saints | W 20–10 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 3 | vs Packers | L 12–14 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 4 | vs Chiefs | L 31–41 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 5 | vs Falcons | W 21–15 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 6 | @ Steelers | L 18–20 | 87% | −87 |
| Week 7 | @ Panthers | L 3–21 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 8 | vs Ravens | L 22–27 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 9 | vs Rams | W 16–13 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 10 | vs Seahawks | W 21–16 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 12 | @ Browns | L 17–23 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 13 | vs Saints | W 17–16 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 14 | @ 49ers | L 7–35 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 15 | vs Bengals | L 23–34 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 16 | @ Cardinals | W 19–16 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 17 | vs Panthers | W 30–24 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 18 | @ Falcons | L 17–30 | 13% | −13 |
| Wild Card | vs Cowboys | L 14–31 | 2% | −2 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.23 | +11.4 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.15 | −7.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.24 | −18.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.50 | −14.0 |
| Kicks | −0.58 | −12.9 |