luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2022: game by game

The Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.

Every game

How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Cowboys W 19–3 95% +5
Week 2 @ Saints W 20–10 66% +34
Week 3 vs Packers L 12–14 47% −47
Week 4 vs Chiefs L 31–41 56% −56
Week 5 vs Falcons W 21–15 64% +36
Week 6 @ Steelers L 18–20 73% −73
Week 7 @ Panthers L 3–21 33% −33
Week 8 vs Ravens L 22–27 21% −21
Week 9 vs Rams W 16–13 82% +18
Week 10 vs Seahawks W 21–16 55% +45
Week 12 @ Browns L 17–23 40% −40
Week 13 vs Saints W 17–16 25% +75
Week 14 @ 49ers L 7–35 4% −4
Week 15 vs Bengals L 23–34 53% −53
Week 16 @ Cardinals W 19–16 90% +10
Week 17 vs Panthers W 30–24 74% +26
Week 18 @ Falcons L 17–30 14% −14
Wild Card vs Cowboys L 14–31 5% −5

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+15.3+0.90
Rest+1.6+0.09
Drops−1.3−0.08
Kicks−13.0−0.77
3rd & 4th downs−13.9−0.82
Fumble bounces−14.2−0.83
Judgment calls−20.7−1.22