luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 21–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 5.1 points to the Buccaneers.

An off day for the Buccaneers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 83% favorites.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
Carolina Panthers 21

October 23, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −13

Luck index +33 Panthers lucky · −33 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Panthers win 7.

  1. 1 TB 24 CAR 6
  2. 2 TB 29 CAR 20
  3. 3 TB 27 CAR 24
  4. 4 TB 10 CAR 12
  5. 5 TB 10 CAR 13
  6. 6 TB 16 CAR 23
  7. 7 TB 3 CAR 13
  8. 8 TB 17 CAR 30
  9. 9 TB 3 CAR 21
  10. 10 TB 3 CAR 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Buccaneers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%.

42 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 +0.14 worse by 0.28
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.08 worse by 0.08
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.01 better by 0.15
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.07 better by 0.21

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 33% of them, Panthers 67%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+3.9%
Buccaneers by 9–169.4%
Buccaneers by 1–815.4%
Level after regulation4.2%
Panthers by 1–825.0%
Panthers by 9–1621.4%
Panthers by 17+20.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 19.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 M. Evans dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 27 catchable balls before this +5% CAR TB: Punt
2 Q1 8:10 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB TB: Punt
3 Q1 0:25 Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q2 11:56 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q2 9:09 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% TB CAR: Punt
6 Q2 0:12 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% TB TB: End of half
7 Q3 7:05 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% CAR TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 6:24 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% CAR TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Baker Mayfield (CAR QB), out, replaced by p.walker · 4.6 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Logan Ryan (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Brate (TB TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 0% · Panthers 100%

Final margin
Panthers by 18
Luck in points
1.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 33% · Panthers 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Buccaneers · Panthers

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