luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Lions at Cowboys, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Lions 24–6, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 12:29 left): the Lions fumbled and the Cowboys recovered, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Detroit Lions 6
Dallas Cowboys 24

October 23, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7

Luck index +47 Cowboys lucky · −47 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 5, Cowboys win 5.

  1. 1 DET 31 DAL 9
  2. 2 DET 20 DAL 6
  3. 3 DET 17 DAL 7
  4. 4 DET 17 DAL 10
  5. 5 DET 16 DAL 13
  6. 6 DET 20 DAL 23
  7. 7 DET 13 DAL 19
  8. 8 DET 10 DAL 20
  9. 9 DET 12 DAL 26
  10. 10 DET 14 DAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 47% of them, Cowboys 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+11.4%
Lions by 9–1614.8%
Lions by 1–819.5%
Level after regulation5.5%
Cowboys by 1–822.0%
Cowboys by 9–1616.2%
Cowboys by 17+10.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Lions: the final margin was Cowboys by 18, without the luck Cowboys by 19.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Maher, 22 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 53 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 8 for 59 yards, Cowboys 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 10:32 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yards +6% DET +1.4 pts
Q2 9:22 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DAL +2.2 pts
Q2 7:59 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 7:21 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Noah Brown), 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 4:28 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Contact on the Lions (DeShon Elliott), 5 yards +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 10:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 9 yards +3% DAL +1.2 pts
Q3 10:18 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% DET +1.2 pts
Q3 4:50 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.3 pts
Q3 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 1:18 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DAL +2.1 pts
Q4 7:11 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards +3% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 6:04 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +1% DET +1.1 pts
Q4 1:21 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.2 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:22 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DAL DAL: Punt
2 Q2 8:03 M. Badgley made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 8 of 21 from 45+ before +9% DET DET: Punt
3 Q2 1:53 The Cowboys fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DET DAL: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:18 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% DAL DAL: Punt
5 Q3 0:51 The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +11% DET DET: Turnover
6 Q4 14:21 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +8% DET DET: Turnover
7 Q4 12:29 The game turned hereThe Lions fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% DAL DET: Turnover
8 Q4 10:41 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% DET DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Will Harris (DET SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 18
Luck in points
1.6 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 19.6
Replay with same day's form
Lions 47% · Cowboys 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Lions · Cowboys

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