luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Lions at Cowboys, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Lions 24–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:29 left): the Lions fumbled and the Cowboys recovered, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Detroit Lions 6
Dallas Cowboys 24

October 23, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7

Luck index +48 Cowboys lucky · −48 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 5, Cowboys win 5.

  1. 1 DET 34 DAL 10
  2. 2 DET 33 DAL 19
  3. 3 DET 27 DAL 17
  4. 4 DET 26 DAL 20
  5. 5 DET 26 DAL 23
  6. 6 DET 22 DAL 24
  7. 7 DET 13 DAL 19
  8. 8 DET 13 DAL 23
  9. 9 DET 13 DAL 29
  10. 10 DET 7 DAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 48% of them, Cowboys 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+10.8%
Lions by 9–1614.7%
Lions by 1–820.7%
Level after regulation5.8%
Cowboys by 1–821.3%
Cowboys by 9–1615.8%
Cowboys by 17+10.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 16.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Maher, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 53 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:03 M. Badgley made 53-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 8 of 21 from 45+ before +9% DET DET: Punt
2 Q2 1:53 The Cowboys fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DET DAL: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:18 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% DAL DAL: Punt
4 Q3 0:51 The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +11% DET DET: Turnover
5 Q4 14:21 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +15% DET DET: Turnover
6 Q4 12:29 The Lions fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% DAL DET: Turnover
7 Q4 10:41 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% DET DAL: Punt
8 Q4 8:29 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% DAL DET: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Will Harris (DET SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 1% · Cowboys 99%

Final margin
Cowboys by 18
Luck in points
1.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 16.7
Replay with same day's form
Lions 48% · Cowboys 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Lions · Cowboys

More from Week 7 2022