luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Giants at Jaguars, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Jaguars 23–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Jaguars: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:42 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 55 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

New York Giants 23
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

October 23, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3

Luck index +21 Giants about even · −21 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 38 JAX 13
  2. 2 NYG 19 JAX 0
  3. 3 NYG 27 JAX 12
  4. 4 NYG 34 JAX 21
  5. 5 NYG 23 JAX 14
  6. 6 NYG 27 JAX 20
  7. 7 NYG 21 JAX 17
  8. 8 NYG 19 JAX 17
  9. 9 NYG 19 JAX 23
  10. 10 NYG 17 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jaguars

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.

39 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.04 better by 0.12
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.12 worse by 0.09
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.07 better by 0.14
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.14 worse by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 79% of them, Jaguars 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+27.6%
Giants by 9–1621.8%
Giants by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Jaguars by 1–811.5%
Jaguars by 9–165.3%
Jaguars by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 2.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 8:02 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3170 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +19% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 6:22 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +17% JAX NYG: Punt
3 Q4 1:00 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% JAX JAX: End of game
4 Q4 0:51 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2204 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% JAX JAX: End of game
5 Q4 0:42 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +55% JAX JAX: End of game
6 Q4 0:32 M. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 24 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +25% NYG JAX: End of game
7 Q4 0:22 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2870 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +12% JAX JAX: End of game
8 Q4 0:07 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +22% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Oshane Ximines (NYG LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 59% · Jaguars 41%

Final margin
Giants by 6
Luck in points
3.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 79% · Jaguars 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Giants · Jaguars

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