luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Giants at Jaguars, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Jaguars 23–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Jaguars: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:07 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 10, worth 22 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 23
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

October 23, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3

Luck index +21 Giants about even · −21 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 38 JAX 10
  2. 2 NYG 38 JAX 17
  3. 3 NYG 23 JAX 6
  4. 4 NYG 34 JAX 20
  5. 5 NYG 28 JAX 17
  6. 6 NYG 20 JAX 12
  7. 7 NYG 27 JAX 23
  8. 8 NYG 17 JAX 14
  9. 9 NYG 10 JAX 13
  10. 10 NYG 17 JAX 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jaguars

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.

40 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.04 better by 0.12
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.12 worse by 0.09
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.07 better by 0.14
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.14 worse by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 79% of them, Jaguars 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+28.9%
Giants by 9–1621.4%
Giants by 1–827.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Jaguars by 1–811.4%
Jaguars by 9–166.3%
Jaguars by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 6, without the luck Jaguars by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 8 for 67 yards, Jaguars 13 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:58 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 6:58 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 1 yard · pre-snap +2% NYG 0.0 pts
Q1 5:53 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% NYG +2.9 pts
Q1 5:24 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +4% JAX +1.0 pts
Q2 9:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Marcus Johnson), 9 yards +3% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 6:46 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +2.2 pts
Q2 4:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 15 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 4:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Julian Love), 15 yards +3% JAX +1.8 pts
Q3 14:09 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 7 yards +4% JAX +1.0 pts
Q3 11:45 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q3 8:02 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 11 yards, wiping out the play +19% NYG +4.1 pts
Q3 2:08 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 0:34 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +4% NYG +1.4 pts
Q4 5:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 10 yards +6% NYG +1.5 pts
Q4 5:35 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q4 5:35 Encroachment on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q4 5:31 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 0:51 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +12% JAX +1.1 pts
Q4 0:42 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% JAX +3.8 pts
Q4 0:32 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.3 pts
Q4 0:22 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards +12% JAX +1.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 8:02 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3170 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +19% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 6:22 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +17% JAX NYG: Punt
3 Q4 0:51 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2204 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% JAX JAX: End of game
4 Q4 0:42 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% JAX JAX: End of game
5 Q4 0:32 M. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 24 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +21% NYG JAX: End of game
6 Q4 0:28 T. Etienne dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +12% NYG JAX: End of game
7 Q4 0:22 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2870 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +12% JAX JAX: End of game
8 Q4 0:07 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +22% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Oshane Ximines (NYG LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 46% · Jaguars 54%

Final margin
Giants by 6
Luck in points
6.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 79% · Jaguars 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Giants · Jaguars

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