luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Browns at Ravens, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:24 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 70 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
Baltimore Ravens 23

October 23, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +48 Ravens lucky · −48 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Ravens win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 31 BAL 7
  2. 2 CLE 27 BAL 13
  3. 3 CLE 27 BAL 17
  4. 4 CLE 33 BAL 27
  5. 5 CLE 33 BAL 31
  6. 6 CLE 10 BAL 12
  7. 7 CLE 10 BAL 16
  8. 8 CLE 17 BAL 27
  9. 9 CLE 10 BAL 24
  10. 10 CLE 14 BAL 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 48% of them, Ravens 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+10.0%
Browns by 9–1614.6%
Browns by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.7%
Ravens by 1–822.4%
Ravens by 9–1615.0%
Ravens by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. York, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. York, 60 yds blocked · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:45 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:53 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE CLE: Punt
3 Q3 12:04 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% BAL CLE: Field goal
4 Q4 3:20 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE BAL: Punt
5 Q4 2:45 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +19% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
6 Q4 2:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3044 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +70% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q4 2:09 C. York had a 60-yard field goal blockedKicks · 54% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1217 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +31% BAL CLE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:07 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 66% · Ravens 34%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
8.2 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 48% · Ravens 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Browns · Ravens

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