luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Browns at Ravens, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 23–20, but the replays lean toward the Browns: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:24 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 66 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
Baltimore Ravens 23

October 23, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +61 Ravens very lucky · −61 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Ravens win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 34 BAL 9
  2. 2 CLE 37 BAL 19
  3. 3 CLE 27 BAL 14
  4. 4 CLE 17 BAL 8
  5. 5 CLE 24 BAL 19
  6. 6 CLE 19 BAL 17
  7. 7 CLE 32 BAL 34
  8. 8 CLE 14 BAL 20
  9. 9 CLE 16 BAL 28
  10. 10 CLE 14 BAL 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 61% of them, Ravens 39%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+14.6%
Browns by 9–1616.9%
Browns by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Ravens by 1–819.4%
Ravens by 9–1612.4%
Ravens by 17+6.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 3, without the luck Browns by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. York, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. York, 60 yds blocked · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 45 yards, Ravens 3 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:08 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 9:32 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BAL +2.3 pts
Q2 1:57 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Dakota Allen), 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 1:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 15 yards +7% CLE +1.3 pts
Q3 10:40 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 5 yards +3% BAL +1.2 pts
Q3 5:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Geno Stone), 23 yards +4% CLE +2.0 pts
Q3 2:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (James Proche), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.4 pts
Q4 2:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play +66% BAL +4.9 pts
Q4 2:09 False Start on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +1.1 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:32 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:45 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2349 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q2 0:53 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q4 3:20 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE BAL: Punt
6 Q4 2:45 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +14% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
7 Q4 2:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3044 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +66% BAL BAL: Punt
8 Q4 2:09 C. York had a 60-yard field goal blockedKicks · 58% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1217 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +33% BAL CLE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 59% · Ravens 41%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
5.1 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Browns 61% · Ravens 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Browns · Ravens

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