luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Packers at Commanders, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Packers 23–21, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 36 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:42 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 30 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 21
Washington Commanders 23

October 23, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +92 Commanders very lucky · −92 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Commanders win 1.

  1. 1 GB 36 WAS 3
  2. 2 GB 41 WAS 17
  3. 3 GB 33 WAS 13
  4. 4 GB 26 WAS 9
  5. 5 GB 30 WAS 16
  6. 6 GB 37 WAS 26
  7. 7 GB 16 WAS 7
  8. 8 GB 20 WAS 14
  9. 9 GB 27 WAS 24
  10. 10 GB 20 WAS 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 92% of them, Commanders 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+56.9%
Packers by 9–1624.0%
Packers by 1–811.2%
Level after regulation0.9%
Commanders by 1–85.5%
Commanders by 9–161.3%
Commanders by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +17.3 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 2, without the luck Packers by 15.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 19 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 9 for 69 yards, Commanders 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Khaleke Hudson), 3 yards 0% GB +0.2 pts
Q1 2:04 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% WAS +1.1 pts
Q2 13:29 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Shaka Toney), 10 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 9 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +1.2 pts
Q2 5:59 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Packers, 5 yards +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 4:29 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Eric Stokes), 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% WAS +3.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 9 yards +6% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Robert Tonyan), 10 yards +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 1:35 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q3 14:18 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards +3% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 10:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Packers (Eric Stokes), 15 yards +3% WAS +1.8 pts
Q4 5:39 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 4 yards 0% GB +0.9 pts
Q4 4:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 5 yards +4% GB +1.0 pts
Q4 3:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Kendall Fuller), 18 yards +5% GB +1.4 pts
Q4 0:29 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.3 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:42 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +30% GB WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:26 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:03 A. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +9% WAS GB: Punt
4 Q2 4:29 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Eric Stokes), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +14% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
5 Q2 2:52 J. Slye missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 28 of 40 from 45+ before +9% GB WAS: Punt
6 Q3 5:43 The Commanders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 11:27 R. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 34 catchable balls before this +8% WAS GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:13 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% WAS WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Commanders by 2
Luck in points
17.3 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 15.3
Replay with same day's form
Packers 92% · Commanders 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Packers · Commanders

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