luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Packers at Commanders, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders stole one. They beat the Packers 23–21, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 11.0 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:42 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 53 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 21
Washington Commanders 23

October 23, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +85 Commanders very lucky · −85 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Commanders win 2.

  1. 1 GB 38 WAS 9
  2. 2 GB 34 WAS 10
  3. 3 GB 23 WAS 5
  4. 4 GB 24 WAS 10
  5. 5 GB 20 WAS 7
  6. 6 GB 16 WAS 7
  7. 7 GB 13 WAS 7
  8. 8 GB 16 WAS 13
  9. 9 GB 17 WAS 21
  10. 10 GB 6 WAS 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 85% of them, Commanders 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+39.4%
Packers by 9–1625.1%
Packers by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Commanders by 1–810.5%
Commanders by 9–163.5%
Commanders by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 13.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 19 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:42 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +53% GB WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:26 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:03 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 253rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedA. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +9% WAS GB: Punt
4 Q2 4:29 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Eric Stokes), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +14% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
5 Q2 2:52 J. Slye missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 28 of 40 from 45+ before +9% GB WAS: Punt
6 Q3 9:07 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedR. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 33 catchable balls before this +8% WAS GB: Punt
7 Q3 5:43 The Commanders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 11:27 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedR. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 34 catchable balls before this +8% WAS GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 98% · Commanders 2%

Final margin
Commanders by 2
Luck in points
15.6 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 85% · Commanders 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Packers · Commanders

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