luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 24, 2022

Bears at Patriots, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Patriots 33–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 7.9 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:44 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 20 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Chicago Bears 33
New England Patriots 14

October 24, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −9.5

Luck index +59 Bears lucky · −59 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 CHI 34 NE 14
  2. 2 CHI 13 NE 0
  3. 3 CHI 16 NE 10
  4. 4 CHI 24 NE 22
  5. 5 CHI 17 NE 19
  6. 6 CHI 16 NE 21
  7. 7 CHI 19 NE 27
  8. 8 CHI 13 NE 24
  9. 9 CHI 3 NE 19
  10. 10 CHI 7 NE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 41% of them, Patriots 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+7.4%
Bears by 9–1612.8%
Bears by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation3.1%
Patriots by 1–825.4%
Patriots by 9–1617.3%
Patriots by 17+15.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 1.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Santos, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:38 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% CHI CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 10:28 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q2 7:44 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% NE CHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:14 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:40 The Patriots fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CHI NE: Punt
6 Q2 0:41 The Bears converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% CHI CHI: Field goal
7 Q2 0:19 The Bears converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +6% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q3 14:13 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% CHI CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 67% · Patriots 33%

Final margin
Bears by 19
Luck in points
17.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Bears 41% · Patriots 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Bears · Patriots

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