luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 24, 2022

Bears at Patriots, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Patriots 33–14, but the replays lean toward the Patriots: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:13 left): the Bears fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 33
New England Patriots 14

October 24, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −9.5

Luck index +62 Bears very lucky · −62 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 CHI 30 NE 12
  2. 2 CHI 24 NE 13
  3. 3 CHI 34 NE 30
  4. 4 CHI 21 NE 20
  5. 5 CHI 10 NE 13
  6. 6 CHI 14 NE 20
  7. 7 CHI 23 NE 33
  8. 8 CHI 10 NE 23
  9. 9 CHI 9 NE 26
  10. 10 CHI 10 NE 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 38% of them, Patriots 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+6.2%
Bears by 9–1611.4%
Bears by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Patriots by 1–824.3%
Patriots by 9–1619.0%
Patriots by 17+18.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +18.0 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 19, without the luck Bears by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Santos, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 4 for 35 yards, Patriots 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:40 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 0:11 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yards +1% CHI 0.0 pts
Q3 11:41 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q3 8:31 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Dane Cruikshank), 10 yards 0% NE +0.7 pts
Q3 3:50 Tripping on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CHI +1.7 pts
Q4 8:24 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% CHI +1.0 pts
Q4 8:00 Disqualification on the Bears, 15 yards 0% NE +1.4 pts
Q4 4:41 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +1.2 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:38 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% CHI CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 10:28 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q2 7:44 The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +7% NE CHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:14 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:40 The Patriots fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CHI NE: Punt
6 Q2 0:41 The Bears converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CHI CHI: Field goal
7 Q2 0:19 The Bears converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +6% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q3 14:13 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% CHI CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 62% · Patriots 38%

Final margin
Bears by 19
Luck in points
18.0 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Bears 38% · Patriots 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Bears · Patriots

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