luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Steelers at Dolphins, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Steelers 16–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): the Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 20 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Miami Dolphins 16

October 23, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −7.5

Luck index +37 Dolphins lucky · −37 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 34 MIA 17
  2. 2 PIT 13 MIA 3
  3. 3 PIT 22 MIA 16
  4. 4 PIT 32 MIA 29
  5. 5 PIT 22 MIA 24
  6. 6 PIT 16 MIA 21
  7. 7 PIT 13 MIA 22
  8. 8 PIT 23 MIA 36
  9. 9 PIT 10 MIA 27
  10. 10 PIT 17 MIA 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 37% of them, Dolphins 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+5.4%
Steelers by 9–1610.3%
Steelers by 1–819.5%
Level after regulation2.3%
Dolphins by 1–824.1%
Dolphins by 9–1620.1%
Dolphins by 17+18.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Dolphins by 6, without the luck Dolphins by 8.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 5 for 40 yards, Dolphins 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +1.0 pts
Q1 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 5:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers (Najee Harris), 10 yards +3% MIA +1.0 pts
Q2 0:26 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 0:15 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.2 pts
Q3 4:12 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards +4% MIA +0.9 pts
Q3 3:42 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 10 yards +3% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 7:16 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Noah Igbinoghene), 5 yards +2% MIA +0.1 pts
Q4 3:17 Illegal Shift on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +1.2 pts
Q4 3:14 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +18% MIA +1.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:14 The Steelers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:07 J. Sanders made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 35 of 53 from 45+ before +5% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 8:43 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% PIT MIA: Punt
4 Q4 6:10 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% PIT PIT: Turnover
5 Q4 3:14 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +18% MIA MIA: Punt
6 Q4 3:06 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% MIA PIT: Turnover
7 Q4 1:06 The Steelers converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% PIT PIT: Turnover
8 Q4 0:25 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +20% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Greg Little (MIA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 8% · Dolphins 92%

Final margin
Dolphins by 6
Luck in points
2.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 37% · Dolphins 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Steelers · Dolphins

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