luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Steelers at Dolphins, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Steelers 16–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.4 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): the Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 19 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Miami Dolphins 16

October 23, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −7.5

Luck index +36 Dolphins lucky · −36 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 33 MIA 13
  2. 2 PIT 16 MIA 3
  3. 3 PIT 19 MIA 13
  4. 4 PIT 16 MIA 13
  5. 5 PIT 26 MIA 28
  6. 6 PIT 15 MIA 20
  7. 7 PIT 23 MIA 31
  8. 8 PIT 19 MIA 31
  9. 9 PIT 11 MIA 29
  10. 10 PIT 16 MIA 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 36% of them, Dolphins 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+6.0%
Steelers by 9–1610.5%
Steelers by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Dolphins by 1–823.1%
Dolphins by 9–1620.4%
Dolphins by 17+18.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:14 The Steelers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q3 8:43 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% PIT MIA: Punt
3 Q4 6:20 N. Harris dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 21 catchable balls before this +8% MIA PIT: Turnover
4 Q4 6:10 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% PIT PIT: Turnover
5 Q4 3:14 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +18% MIA MIA: Punt
6 Q4 3:06 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% MIA PIT: Turnover
7 Q4 1:06 The Steelers converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% PIT PIT: Turnover
8 Q4 0:25 The Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Greg Little (MIA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 25% · Dolphins 75%

Final margin
Dolphins by 6
Luck in points
0.1 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 36% · Dolphins 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Steelers · Dolphins

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