luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Jets at Broncos, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Broncos 16–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Jets were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:25 left): B. McManus missed a 56-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 16
Denver Broncos 9

October 23, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Jets −2

Luck index +27 Jets lucky · −27 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Broncos win 3.

  1. 1 NYJ 30 DEN 3
  2. 2 NYJ 27 DEN 9
  3. 3 NYJ 31 DEN 17
  4. 4 NYJ 25 DEN 14
  5. 5 NYJ 25 DEN 17
  6. 6 NYJ 27 DEN 21
  7. 7 NYJ 16 DEN 14
  8. 8 NYJ 15 DEN 18
  9. 9 NYJ 17 DEN 25
  10. 10 NYJ 12 DEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 73% of them, Broncos 27%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+24.3%
Jets by 9–1622.5%
Jets by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation3.4%
Broncos by 1–814.1%
Broncos by 9–168.2%
Broncos by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 4.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 56 yds missed · 65% expected
  • B. McManus, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 11 for 85 yards, Broncos 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DEN +2.6 pts
Q1 9:22 False Start on the Jets (Jacob Martin), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.4 pts
Q1 5:26 Defensive Offside on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q1 5:04 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 5 yards +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:47 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards +5% DEN +0.8 pts
Q2 4:46 False Start on the Broncos (Eric Saubert), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q2 2:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Denzel Mims), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DEN +1.2 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.2 pts
Q2 0:38 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +6% DEN +1.4 pts
Q3 11:32 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q3 9:41 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 9:30 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Vinny Curry), 15 yards +6% DEN +2.0 pts
Q3 3:57 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 8:08 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DEN +1.2 pts
Q4 6:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 19 yards +9% NYJ +2.8 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 11:25 B. McManus missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 37 of 52 from 45+ before +16% NYJ DEN: Field goal
3 Q2 4:27 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q2 2:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Denzel Mims), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 718 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +7% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q3 1:33 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% NYJ DEN: Punt
6 Q4 6:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 19 yardsJudgment calls +9% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
7 Q4 3:41 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:00 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +15% NYJ DEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Wilson (DEN QB), out, replaced by b.rypien · 4.7 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Bobenmoyer (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 93% · Broncos 7%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
2.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Jets 73% · Broncos 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Jets · Broncos

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