luckadjusted

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Jets at Broncos, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Broncos 16–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.6 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Jets were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:25 left): B. McManus missed 56-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 16
Denver Broncos 9

October 23, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Jets −2

Luck index +25 Jets about even · −25 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 8, Broncos win 2.

  1. 1 NYJ 34 DEN 7
  2. 2 NYJ 27 DEN 7
  3. 3 NYJ 26 DEN 10
  4. 4 NYJ 22 DEN 10
  5. 5 NYJ 31 DEN 22
  6. 6 NYJ 27 DEN 20
  7. 7 NYJ 26 DEN 22
  8. 8 NYJ 13 DEN 10
  9. 9 NYJ 13 DEN 17
  10. 10 NYJ 13 DEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 75% of them, Broncos 25%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+28.2%
Jets by 9–1621.3%
Jets by 1–825.9%
Level after regulation2.5%
Broncos by 1–811.6%
Broncos by 9–167.1%
Broncos by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 6.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 56 yds missed · 62% expected
  • B. McManus, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 11:25 B. McManus missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 37 of 52 from 45+ before +16% NYJ DEN: Field goal
3 Q3 1:33 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% NYJ DEN: Punt
4 Q4 7:02 D. Mims dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +8% DEN NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 6:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 19 yardsJudgment calls +9% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
6 Q4 3:41 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:00 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +15% NYJ DEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:48 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Wilson (DEN QB), out, replaced by b.rypien · 4.7 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Bobenmoyer (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 95% · Broncos 5%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
0.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Jets 75% · Broncos 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Jets · Broncos

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