2022 season · final
Denver Broncos, 2022: game by game
The Broncos went 5–12 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.7 wins. Luck cost them 2.7: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–9.
Every game
How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Seahawks | L 16–17 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 2 | vs Texans | W 16–9 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | vs 49ers | W 11–10 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 4 | @ Raiders | L 23–32 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 5 | vs Colts | L 9–12 | 97% | −97 |
| Week 6 | @ Chargers | L 16–19 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 7 | vs Jets | L 9–16 | 27% | −27 |
| Week 8 | vs Jaguars | W 21–17 | 37% | +64 |
| Week 10 | @ Titans | L 10–17 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 11 | vs Raiders | L 16–22 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 12 | @ Panthers | L 10–23 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 13 | @ Ravens | L 9–10 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 14 | vs Chiefs | L 28–34 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 15 | vs Cardinals | W 24–15 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 16 | @ Rams | L 14–51 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 17 | @ Chiefs | L 24–27 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 18 | vs Chargers | W 31–28 | 83% | +17 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.39 | +7.8 |
| Judgment calls | +0.33 | +9.5 |
| Rest | +0.06 | +1.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.29 | +1.9 |
| Injuries | −0.34 | −13.8 |
| Kicks | −1.10 | −23.7 |