Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022
Broncos at Titans, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Broncos 17–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:02 left): R. Woods dropped a catchable pass, worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Denver Broncos | 10 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Titans win 9.
- 1 DEN 38 TEN 33
- 2 DEN 24 TEN 26
- 3 DEN 27 TEN 31
- 4 DEN 16 TEN 23
- 5 DEN 11 TEN 21
- 6 DEN 12 TEN 24
- 7 DEN 7 TEN 23
- 8 DEN 3 TEN 22
- 9 DEN 13 TEN 36
- 10 DEN 3 TEN 34
Your call
Did the Titans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Broncos win 13% of them, Titans 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Broncos by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 7.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 17.5% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 23.3% |
| Titans by 17+ | 46.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 39 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Bullock, 35 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Broncos 8 for 50 yards, Titans 9 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:12 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Jacob Martin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% TEN +1.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Broncos (Eric Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:21 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:56 | Defensive Holding on the Titans (Larrell Murchison), 5 yards | +1% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:24 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +3% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:51 | Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 3:16 | Roughing the Passer on the Titans, 15 yards | +4% DEN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:29 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards | +1% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:18 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +8% DEN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 11:46 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:00 | Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:41 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:29 | Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +9% DEN +2.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Tyrie Cleveland), 10 yards | +4% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:50 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:30 | False Start on the Broncos (Latavius Murray), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Rashad Weaver), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.5 pts |
Broncos penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:52 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 13:18 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 4:29 | Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:49 | The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 0:02 | R. Woods dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 28 catchable balls before this | +12% DEN | TEN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:49 | The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:48 | The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% TEN | TEN: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 7:39 | The Titans fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% DEN | TEN: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.8 pts
- Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out · 0.9 pts
- Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Cameron Fleming (DEN T), out · 0.5 pts
- Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Baron Browning (DEN LB), out · 0.1 pts
- Jacob Bobenmoyer (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Broncos 0% · Titans 100%
- Final margin
- Titans by 7
- Luck in points
- 12.3 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 19.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Broncos 13% · Titans 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · 
Broncos · 
Titans
More from Week 10 2022
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 25–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- Seahawks vs Buccaneers TB 21–16 · replay 41% for the winner
- Browns at Dolphins MIA 39–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 31–30 · replay 57% for the winner
- Texans at Giants NYG 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chiefs KC 27–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Bills MIN 33–30 · replay 14% for the winner
- Saints at Steelers PIT 20–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Raiders IND 25–20 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams ARI 27–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Cowboys at Packers GB 31–28 · replay 56% for the winner
- Chargers at 49ers SF 22–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles WAS 32–21 · replay 49% for the winner