luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Colts at Raiders, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Raiders 25–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:52 left): the Raiders were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 25 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 25
Las Vegas Raiders 20

November 13, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −4.5

Luck index +35 Colts lucky · −35 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 IND 30 LV 3
  2. 2 IND 24 LV 7
  3. 3 IND 36 LV 24
  4. 4 IND 15 LV 7
  5. 5 IND 20 LV 16
  6. 6 IND 23 LV 21
  7. 7 IND 16 LV 19
  8. 8 IND 17 LV 23
  9. 9 IND 13 LV 26
  10. 10 IND 16 LV 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 65% of them, Raiders 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+16.7%
Colts by 9–1620.8%
Colts by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Raiders by 1–818.9%
Raiders by 9–1610.4%
Raiders by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 5, without the luck Colts by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 4 for 25 yards, Raiders 10 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:44 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q1 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Keelan Cole), 10 yards +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q1 11:57 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% IND +1.6 pts
Q1 3:35 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.1 pts
Q1 1:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards +3% LV +1.1 pts
Q2 3:23 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 0:32 Illegal Contact on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% LV +0.3 pts
Q3 4:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 5 yards +4% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 4:21 Tripping on the Raiders, 10 yards +5% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 1:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yards +8% IND +1.4 pts
Q3 0:21 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards +4% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 11:03 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Bilal Nichols), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.2 pts
Q4 9:54 Tripping on the Colts, 10 yards +4% LV +0.9 pts
Q4 4:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% IND +1.1 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 12:32 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q4 11:47 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q4 9:58 P. Campbell dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 43 catchable balls before this +9% LV IND: Punt
4 Q4 6:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:58 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +12% IND IND: End of game
7 Q4 0:56 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% IND LV: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:52 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +25% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LV LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 66% · Raiders 34%

Final margin
Colts by 5
Luck in points
4.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 65% · Raiders 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Colts · Raiders

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