luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Saints at Steelers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Saints 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 6.8 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:22 left): the Saints were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

November 13, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −1

Luck index +17 Steelers about even · −17 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 NO 17 PIT 7
  2. 2 NO 13 PIT 10
  3. 3 NO 16 PIT 19
  4. 4 NO 24 PIT 29
  5. 5 NO 7 PIT 14
  6. 6 NO 10 PIT 20
  7. 7 NO 3 PIT 16
  8. 8 NO 10 PIT 26
  9. 9 NO 7 PIT 26
  10. 10 NO 13 PIT 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 17% of them, Steelers 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+1.1%
Saints by 9–164.5%
Saints by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.1%
Steelers by 1–825.5%
Steelers by 9–1623.3%
Steelers by 17+33.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 44 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Wright, 39 yds missed · 84% expected
  • M. Wright, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Wright, 48 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:45 The Steelers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:51 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q3 14:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jarvis Landry), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2499 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +7% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
4 Q3 8:09 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% NO NO: Punt
5 Q4 14:16 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +10% NO PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 13:47 M. Wright made 33-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:22 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% PIT NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 4:30 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT SS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Bradley Roby (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Marquez Callaway (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 26% · Steelers 74%

Final margin
Steelers by 10
Luck in points
9.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 17% · Steelers 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Saints · Steelers

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