luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Vikings at Bills, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings stole one. They beat the Bills 33–30, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 6.3 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Bills were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:49 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 100 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 33
Buffalo Bills 30

November 13, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6.5

Luck index +84 Vikings very lucky · −84 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 43 BUF 30
  2. 2 MIN 27 BUF 23
  3. 3 MIN 14 BUF 16
  4. 4 MIN 19 BUF 24
  5. 5 MIN 27 BUF 34
  6. 6 MIN 33 BUF 45
  7. 7 MIN 16 BUF 33
  8. 8 MIN 23 BUF 44
  9. 9 MIN 16 BUF 43
  10. 10 MIN 7 BUF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 16% of them, Bills 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+2.3%
Vikings by 9–164.0%
Vikings by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bills by 1–818.1%
Bills by 9–1620.7%
Bills by 17+43.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 4.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Joseph, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 45 yds made · 74% expected
  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:21 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +16% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q4 2:00 The Vikings converted 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +22% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 1:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 0:50 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +42% BUF MIN: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 0:49 The Bills fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +100% MIN BUF: Field goal
6 QOT 7:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 19 yardsJudgment calls +24% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 QOT 3:45 G. Joseph made 33-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +33% BUF –
8 QOT 1:19 The Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +30% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gregory Rousseau (BUF DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (MIN DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 37% · Bills 63%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
7.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 16% · Bills 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Vikings · Bills

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