luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Vikings at Bills, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bills 33–30, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 66 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Bills were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:49 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 100 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 33
Buffalo Bills 30

November 13, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6.5

Luck index +86 Vikings very lucky · −86 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 MIN 31 BUF 22
  2. 2 MIN 17 BUF 19
  3. 3 MIN 33 BUF 38
  4. 4 MIN 20 BUF 28
  5. 5 MIN 9 BUF 20
  6. 6 MIN 24 BUF 38
  7. 7 MIN 20 BUF 37
  8. 8 MIN 20 BUF 40
  9. 9 MIN 24 BUF 50
  10. 10 MIN 17 BUF 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 14% of them, Bills 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+1.4%
Vikings by 9–163.6%
Vikings by 1–87.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bills by 1–817.3%
Bills by 9–1621.0%
Bills by 17+47.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.3 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Bills by 6.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Joseph, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 64 yards, Bills 7 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:05 Horse Collar Tackle on the Vikings (Eric Kendricks), 15 yards +5% BUF +1.8 pts
Q2 8:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q3 12:22 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIN +1.5 pts
Q3 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +2.9 pts
Q3 6:24 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Vikings, 5 yards +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 5:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 2:12 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +1.0 pts
Q3 0:53 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIN +2.1 pts
Q4 3:45 False Start on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q4 1:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards +16% MIN +1.8 pts
Q4 0:57 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 0 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF 0.0 pts
Q4 0:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings, 14 yards +7% BUF +1.0 pts
OT 8:19 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% BUF +0.6 pts
OT 7:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 19 yards +24% MIN +1.9 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 2:00 The Vikings converted 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +22% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
2 Q4 1:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 0:50 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +42% BUF MIN: Opp touchdown
4 Q4 0:49 The game turned hereThe Bills fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +100% MIN BUF: Field goal
5 OT 8:17 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 OT 7:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 19 yardsJudgment calls +24% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 OT 5:58 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 OT 1:19 The Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +34% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gregory Rousseau (BUF DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (MIN DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 23% · Bills 77%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
9.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 14% · Bills 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Vikings · Bills

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