luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Lions at Bears, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Bears 31–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lions win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:38 left): Return touchdown by the Lions, worth 36 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 31
Chicago Bears 30

November 13, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +43 Lions lucky · −43 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 DET 44 CHI 21
  2. 2 DET 22 CHI 6
  3. 3 DET 33 CHI 21
  4. 4 DET 20 CHI 13
  5. 5 DET 31 CHI 26
  6. 6 DET 23 CHI 21
  7. 7 DET 31 CHI 34
  8. 8 DET 21 CHI 27
  9. 9 DET 21 CHI 30
  10. 10 DET 10 CHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 57% of them, Bears 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+13.1%
Lions by 9–1615.5%
Lions by 1–828.2%
Level after regulation2.9%
Bears by 1–821.3%
Bears by 9–1612.5%
Bears by 17+6.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.1 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 1, without the luck Bears by 10.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 25 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 2 for 15 yards, Bears 9 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:58 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +5% DET +1.8 pts
Q1 1:11 Face Mask on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 15 yards +4% DET +1.3 pts
Q2 13:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Trinity Benson), 10 yards +4% CHI +0.9 pts
Q2 9:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 6 yards +4% DET +1.5 pts
Q2 5:57 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Byron Pringle), 10 yards +3% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 13:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears, 15 yards +2% DET +1.8 pts
Q4 12:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 11:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% DET +3.8 pts
Q4 11:03 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DET +2.2 pts
Q4 1:55 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +7% CHI +1.0 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:01 The Lions converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:00 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2212 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:03 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2335 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +8% DET DET: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 10:38 The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +36% DET CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:14 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 The Bears got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +13% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:12 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +14% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad (CHI DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (DET WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 2% · Bears 98%

Final margin
Lions by 1
Luck in points
11.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 57% · Bears 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Lions · Bears

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